Top GOP Contenders Start By Losing Straw Polls
Source: Hotline
Hotline: Top GOP Contenders Start By Losing Straw PollsErin McPike
March 11, 2010
NRSC recruits may well sweep their primaries this spring and summer, but some of them are faltering with the base in straw polls now.
And it's not just ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) who's racked up an impressive string of victories in the early ballot tests over his party-backed rival; NV ex-GOP chairwoman Sue Lowden (R) and CO ex-LG Jane Norton (R) have both had difficulties of their own.
Norton, a favorite of party operatives in D.C., has found herself with less support than Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, state Sen. Tom Wiens or businessman Cleve Tidwell in 6 straw polls. Buck won 50% of the votes cast at a Colorado Springs candidate forum Tuesday, while Norton took 32%.
Lowden is in a 10-way field for the GOP nod to take on Sen. Harry Reid (R), where her top competitors for the nomination are businessman Danny Tarkanian and investment banker John Chachas.
Nevertheless, it has been ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) who has had early luck at GOP straw polls. She won the Clark Co. GOP straw poll, though Lowden and Tarkanian finished close behind. And Angle placed ahead of Lowden in the Washoe Co. and Storey Co. straw polls and finished second in the Carson City straw poll behind state Sen. Mark Amodei (R), who has since withdrawn from the race.
Straw polls don't necessarily portend electoral victories, but they do give a glimpse into momentum, and in some cases, institutional strength and support. Although ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney ultimately lost the GOP nomination in '08, his straw poll showings were a sign of organizational heft that spooked the rest of the field.
Rubio has had the most success so far, winning 25 straw poll victories over FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R). In those cases, those wins helped him blossom into a national conservative hero who has arguably become the front-runner in the race to replace appointed Sen. George LeMieux (R).
Virtually no GOP-favored candidate is safe. Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN), the party favorite to reclaim his old seat, and ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R), the NRSC's preferred contender in CA, have each lost a straw poll apiece.
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