DEMOCRATS WINNING ON THE ECONOMY – VOTERS REJECTING GOP ECONOMIC IDEAS THAT FAVOR WEALTHY & BIG CORPORATIONS – GROWING ECONOMY BOOSTS DEMOCRATS. In every battleground Senate race there is a clear contrast of economic visions: Republican ideas that favor the wealthy and big corporations and Democratic plans that would make life more affordable for middle class families. Democrats are winning the economic argument in these races, and the flow of good economic news is improving the overall political climate for Democrats.
CNN POLL SAYS VOTERS VIEW OF ECONOMY IMPROVING – NO REPUBLICAN WAVE COMING – NOT 2010. A new CNN/ORC poll this morning shows that the percentage of Americans who say economic conditions are “good” is at the highest level since Barack Obama became President and is the highest rating for the economy since the recession began in December of 2007. An improving economy makes a GOP wave even more unlikely.
A BIG WIN FOR SPEAKER CRUZ & THE TORTILLA COAST CAUCUS. They’re back. The motley crew that shut down the government almost a year ago have retaken control of the Republican party. Ted Cruz and his Tortilla Coast caucus are again showing America that the Republican party is incapable of actually governing. Republicans were able to pass a bill to sue the President but have refused to pass a bill to start solving the border crisis. No wonder the Republican brand is at an all-time low.
NBC NEWS: THE GOP “BLEW IT” OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS, “DEMOCRATS NOW HAVE SOMETHING FRESH TO RUN AGAINST.” NBC’s First Read team writes this morning, “Anotherstunning legislative embarrassment for House Republicans has handed Democrats a mighty big talking point over the next three months until the midterm elections: The GOP is incapable -- if not unwilling -- to govern, they will argue. ‘Republicans,’ you’re going to hear Democrats say, ‘can’t even agree how to respond to a serious crisis on our borders. But where they do agree is launching a partisan lawsuit against the president of the United States. That’s your ‘Do-Nothing’ Republican Party.’ the past 48 hours might have been even worse for Republicans -- suing the president for taking executive action, not passing legislation to provide relief at the border, and then saying that there are executive actions Obama should be taking on the border. (Huh?) As even Charles Krauthammer said on Fox, ‘It is ridiculous to sue the president on a Wednesday because he oversteps the law … and then on a Thursday say that he should overstep the law.’ Here’s the deal: If Democrats hold serve in November (retain control of the Senate, minimize losses or even pick up seats in the House), we’ll all look back on the last two days as the week the GOP blew it….In other words, Democrats now have something fresh to run against.”
THE DEBACLE IN THE HOUSE THIS WEEK IS WHY WE’RE SO EXCITED THE GOP IS RUNNING SO MANY HOUSE REPUBLICANS FOR SENATE. Republicans Senate candidates across the country like Tom Cotton and Cory Gardner are proud members of Cruz’s Tortilla Coast wing of the party and their alliance with Cruz means they hold a slate of positions that are far too extreme for mainstream voters. There’s nothing more unpopular in American politics than House Republicans. Recent polls show that the House Republican brand is incredibly unpopular. In five Senate races this cycle—Colorado, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia – the GOP is putting forward House Republicans. Additionally,three House Republicans ran in Georgia—and all of them lost. House Republicans haven’t fared well in Senate races in recent cycles— in 2012, the GOP put forward seven current or former House Republicans as Senate candidates and six of them lost – half of them lost in states that Mitt Romney won.
GOP SENATE CANDIDATES STILL TALKING UP IMPEACHMENT. Yesterday at an NRSC pen and pad, NRSC Chair Jerry Moran was asked about impeachment and said, “It’s not true. I’ve never heard it from any Republican. There’s nobody talking about this.” Maybe Washington Republicans should start listening to what their Senate candidates are saying. Both Joni Ernst andDavid Perdue have joined Sarah Palin and advocated for impeaching President Obama.
DEMOCRATS HIGHLIGHT HOW THEY’RE ON THE RIGHT SIDE ON ISSUES IMPORTANT TO WOMEN. National Journal reports that Personhood, reproductive freedom, pay equity, and the minimum wage “remain potent in many of the most competitive Senate races across the electoral map: Colorado, Kentucky, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, to name a few, are places where women's issues have already played prominently.” Democrats are highlighting how they’re on the right side of issues important to women “by using concrete examples of issues that affect women to prove their point: equal pay, abortion, and contraception, among others.” Pollster Mark Mellman told National Journal, “We are on much stronger ground when we talk about the specifics than when we talk about the category…And so when we talk about Republicans who want to make abortion illegal, Republicans who want to ban equal pay for equal work … the specific policy issues matter. That's where the power is."
“SCOTT BROWN’S SHOT AT HISTORY: NO SENATE CANDIDATE HAS EVER LOST TWICE TO WOMEN.” From the Boston Globe, “Scott Brown has a chance to make history in his New Hampshire US Senate bid. With a loss to incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, Brown could be the first candidate to lose two senate races to women….A Smart Politics analysis finds that if Scott Brown wins the New Hampshire GOP primary, he would become just the fourth major party politician in U.S. history to face three female major party U.S. Senate nominees, and, if he loses to Jeanne Shaheen, would become the first to lose to two of them.”
MUST READ – ETHANOL ON CENTER STAGE IN IOWA: BRALEY FIGHTS FOR RENEWABLE FUEL STANDARD WHILE ERNST IS “PHILOSOPHICALLY” OPPOSED. POLITICO reports that ethanol is emerging as a major issue in the Iowa Senate race. Campaigning across Iowa, Bruce Braley is touting his support for ethanol while Joni Ernst “has been more elusive on the issue — saying she ‘philosophically’ opposes government meddling in markets but promising to protect EPA’s ethanol program until all other subsidies are repealed….Less-than-
NEW VIDEO: ERNST’S “PERFECT WORLD” IS WRONG FOR IOWA FAMILIES. A new video from the Iowa Democratic Party highlights how in Joni Ernst’s “perfect world,” she would eliminate the Renewable Fuel Standard, federal minimum wage, guaranteed benefits of Social Security, and the Department of Education. Joni Ernst’s “perfect world” would be a disaster for Iowa’s middle class families. Watch the video here.
BRALEY CALLS FOR AN END TO BIG OIL TAX BREAKS. Via KCHA, Bruce Braley “announced his support for the Ending Big Oil Tax Subsidies Act—which would end tax breaks for the largest oil companies, saving taxpayers roughly $40 billion over the next five years.” Earlier this week, Joni Ernst raised money in DC with big oil companies.
BILL CASSIDY’S TERRIBLE WEEK.
- Baton Rouge TV covers a protest in front of Bill Cassidy’s office of Louisiana seniors protesting Cassidy’s plan to turn Medicare into a voucher system and cut Medicare benefits. Watch the segment here.
- The Huffington Post reports on how Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has had no problem with weighing in on other Republican primaries across the country but still hasn’t endorsed Bill Cassidy.
- Family Research Council President Tony Perkins endorsed Rob Maness over Bill Cassidy.
- The New York Times reported that the Chamber of Commerce plans to support Mary Landrieu over Bill Cassidy.
FACT CHECK: IT’S “100% TRUE” ERNST DOESN’T THINK THERE SHOULD BE A FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGE, THINKS IOWANS CAN SURVIVE ON $15,000 A YEAR. KCRG fact checks Bruce Braley’slatest ad that hits Joni Ernst on minimum wage, concluding, “The ad uses direct quotes from Joni Ernst on her positions on the federal minimum wage, which are easy to confirm, and the rest of the claim is simple math. While the opinion statements in the ad are up for debate, the facts laid out in it are 100% true.”
MULTI-MILLIONAIRE DAVID PERDUE SUPPORTS PROTECTING TAX BREAKS FOR CORPORATIONS WHO SEND JOBS OVERSEAS. David Perdue has made millions tearing companies and communities apart by slashing thousands of jobs in Georgia and across the country and outsourcing jobs. So it’s no surprise Perdue wants to protect tax breaks for corporations that send jobs overseas, telling the AJC, “Rather than penalizing people for going offshore, we’ve got to make ourselves more competitive.”
THIS WEEKEND IN KENTUCKY: FANCY FARM. All eyes this weekend will be on Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic, “an old-fashioned stump-speaking” the Huffington Post’s Howard Fineman calls, “the start of the race to the wire.” “Fancy Farm is electioneering at its most basic: A mix of down-home handshaking, crowd-working and attempts to speak over the shouts and rhythmic chants of supporters and foes….If you’re a candidate, the objective is to show your organizational clout, shake as many hands as possible, and keep a smile on your face at all times, in camera range and out.” All week, Grimes has traveled across Kentucky on her “Road to Fancy Farm” bus tour drawing huge crowds and highlighting her plan to grow the middle class by making sure all Kentuckians have a level playing field and a fair shot at success. Last year, Grimes drew rave reviews at Fancy Farm just weeks after announcing her campaign against McConnell.
NEW POLLS THIS WEEK SHOW DEMOCRATS IN A STRONG POSITION.
ARKANSAS. Mark Pryor’s new internal poll shows him leading Tom Cotton 45-39 among likely voters. Another poll from Anzalone Liszt Grove Research shows Mark Pryor leading Tom Cotton 48-46. “Pryor had a higher favorable rating among the voters who still haven’t picked a side (33 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable for Pryor, 17 percent favorable and 27 percent unfavorable for Cotton).”
MICHIGAN. A poll from Michigan’s Mitchell Research & Communications shows Gary Peters leading Terri Lynn Land 43-38. The same poll showed Peters up just 3 in early June. In early April, the Mitchell poll showed Land leading by six. Another poll from GOP pollster Rasmussen shows Gary Peters leading Terri Lynn Land, 45-39.
GEORGIA. A new poll for Atlanta ABC affiliate WSB shows Michelle Nunn leading David Perdue 47-43.
HAWAII. A new Civil Beat poll in Hawaii shows Brian Schatz up 8 points, 49-41.
WOMEN. A new Hart Research poll shows 58% of women, including 60% of independent women, between 18 & 55 oppose the Supreme Court decision that enabled a woman’s boss to deny her health insurance coverage for birth control. The poll also shows 57% of women would be more likely to support a candidate who opposes the Hobby Lobby decision.
MUST WATCH: GREAT NEW ADS FROM DEMOCRATS THIS WEEK.
KENTUCKY. Alison Lundergan Grimes’ campaign highlights Mitch McConnell’s shameful record of voting against issues important to Kentucky women including voting against the Violence Against Women Act and bills to enforce equal pay for women. Watch “Question from Illene” here.
ALASKA. Alaska veteran Skip Nelson, a 27 year Navy fighter pilot and Republican, is the star of a new ad from Mark Begich’s campaign. Nelson, a longtime supporter of Ted Stevens and Lisa Murkowski, points out that Begich and Murkowski vote together as much as 80% of the time. Watch “Great Team” here.
IOWA. Bruce Braley’s new ad hits Joni Ernst for opposing a federal minimum wage and highlighting that Ernst thinks that Iowans can survive on $15,000 per year. Watch“Minimum” here. A Majority PAC ad ties Joni Ernst to the Koch brothers who support her because she shares their priorities that include “a scheme privatizing Social Security and a plan cutting Medicare’s guaranteed benefit.” Watch “Follow It” here.
NORTH CAROLINA. Kay Hagan’s campaign is out with a great new ad highlighting her record of working across the aisle and putting North Carolina’s middle class families first. Watch “Same Team” here.
WEST VIRGINIA. Natalie Tennant rolled out her first ad of her campaign this morning, which highlights how she is an independent leader who fight for West Virginia in the Senate. Watch “Message” here.
TWEET OF THE WEEK. This week’s award goes to Washington Post reporter Robert Costa for his take on Ted Cruz as the undisputed leader of the Tortilla Coast caucus, “TED CRUZ, post shutdown, continues to be *the* key player in House GOP politics, with grip over swing tea bloc” We agree.
Enjoy the weekend.