ICYMI: Senate Rankings: 8 GOP Seats That Could Flip in November [The Hill]

In case you missed it, new reporting in The Hill is highlighting how Democrats are “increasingly eyeing the possibility of making significant gains in the Senate,” with as many as eight Republican-held seats – including North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Kansas – looking increasingly likely to flip in the midterms, with Democrats “on offense” heading into November. 

Democrats’ “blue-chip Senate recruits” and “messaging focused on affordability” have created  “several paths to win back the majority,” as they continue to outraise “Republicans on average by 4 to 1 across the battleground states.” Meanwhile, “Trump’s sinking approval ratings, frustration with the war in Iran and rising prices have pushed a number of GOP-held seats into play.”

See for yourself:

The Hill: Senate rankings: 8 GOP seats that could flip in November

• With 85 days until the midterm elections, Democrats are increasingly eyeing the possibility of making significant gains in the Senate. 
• […] President Trump’s sinking approval ratings, frustration with the war in Iran and rising prices have pushed a number of GOP-held seats into play. 
• Even winning a fraction of those seats could make a significant difference in the next Congress, as evidenced by the confirmation of Attorney General Todd Blanche by a single vote last week. 
• Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor at nonpartisan election analysis publication Cook Political Report, told The Hill that Democratic voters have turned out more in primaries this spring and summer than Republicans — showing a potential enthusiasm gap when it comes to voting in the general election. 
• North Carolina 
• The Cook Political Report rates North Carolina as “likely Democratic,” which Taylor attributed to Trump’s low approval ratings in the state — at about 40 percent — and the selection of Cooper, a well-known and popular former governor, as the Democratic nominee. 
• “Rarely are races in North Carolina a blowout, especially at the federal level,” Taylor said. “But this is far and away Democrats’ best pickup opportunity. It helps that it’s an open seat, and they have a top tier recruit in the former governor.” 
• Democrats, meanwhile, are hitting [Michael Whatley] on his ties to a longtime party fundraiser who was convicted of sex crimes and connecting Whatley to unpopular Trump policies. 
• Maine 
• Maine has long been one of Democrats’ most sought-after Senate seats. 
• Democrats […] are working to highlight Collins’s key vote for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, paving the way for the court to overturn Roe v. Wade… 
• Several recent polls show Jackson slightly ahead, including a University of New Hampshire poll, which had Jackson up 3 points… 
• “She’s been a survivor, but [Collins’] numbers are the worst they’ve ever been in her career,” Taylor said. 
• Ohio 
• The Buckeye State has trended red in recent years but may be one of Democrats’ best shots in 2026 as former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) attempts a comeback bid against GOP Sen. Jon Husted… 
• A sticking point in this race is the development of data centers, which Husted has encouraged and helped support bringing to Ohio while he was lieutenant governor. Brown has hit Husted in ads over the summer for his support of tax breaks for developers and has called for companies to take on more responsibility for electricity costs incurred by data centers and for communities to get more input on whether they want data centers nearby. 
• Taylor said that the data center issue is “incredibly salient” in Ohio and that Brown has “wielded it well.” Brown also has the advantage of having served as a senator from 2007 until last year… 
• A big unknown in the state is whether Ohio Republicans, including Husted, will be dragged down by the allegations surrounding Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio), who was accused by his ex-wife of domestic abuse. Miller has denied the allegations and refused to drop out of the race. 
• Alaska 
• Alaska is not historically a state that has been in play for Democrats. But election analysts like Cook have it rated as a toss-up, in part because the Democratic candidate, former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), has a history of flipping Republican seats. 
• Peltola was the first Alaska Native member of Congress and was part of a caucus of moderate Democrats — the Blue Dogs — during her time in the House. Because Alaska’s House seat is at-large, she’s had experience winning statewide. 
• Her campaign tagline is “Fish, Family, Freedom,” pointing to her experience working on commercial fishing boats before becoming a legislator and tribal judge. 
• “Peltola is a compelling candidate,” Taylor said. “Alaska is a Trump +13 state. But you’ve seen Trump’s approval rating even go down there. I think that Dan Sullivan, he’s just running against the political environment right now.” 
• Cost of living issues hit Alaska more severely than other states because of its harsh climate and sparse infrastructure, which can cause gas and grocery prices to be higher than the Lower 48. Peltola’s campaign has emphasized how incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska)’s support for the Iran war is a direct cause of high fuel costs in rural parts of the state. 
• Iowa 
• Iowa is another state that’s trended red but appears within reach for Democrats this year. The Democratic nominee, Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek, is a Paralympic gold medalist […] His first general election ads have focused on his mission to “fight corruption and clean up Washington.” 
• Turek also picked up a major endorsement late last month from Obama, who has only endorsed one other Senate candidate this cycle so far: Texas Democratic nominee James Talarico. Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2012. 
• … Iowa has been widely affected by the Trump administration’s tariffs and the war in Iran, which have raised prices for fertilizer and fuel. 
• “There’s something unique happening in Iowa,” Taylor said. “The state has been hit hard by tariffs and agriculture prices. So I think Iowa is sort of uniquely vulnerable across the board for Republicans this cycle.” 
• Texas 
• The race for the Senate seat held by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is one of the most high-profile this year. 
• … [The Texas Senate race] became more competitive when longtime incumbent Cornyn lost his primary in May to Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has faced extensive scrutiny over personal scandals and corruption charges… 
• “I think Ken Paxton is a uniquely vulnerable Republican because of all of his baggage, and that’s why you saw, you know, national Republicans try to get John Cornyn over the finish line, and Trump certainly did not help them in this race,” Taylor said. 
• Talarico, the Democratic candidate, has a master’s degree in arts from a seminary and is a state legislator who has built his campaign on an anti-corruption focus and has spoken openly about his Christian faith. 
• Taylor said Talarico is polling better than the last Democrat who came close to a Texas Senate seat — former Rep. Beto O’Rourke — was at this point in 2018. A new poll from Emerson released Thursday has Talarico and Paxton in a dead heat, with Paxton at 47 percent and Talarico at 46 percent. Other polls, including one from Fox News earlier this summer, had Talarico slightly ahead. 
• There is also a significant fundraising gap between them. Talarico has raked in $31.6 million to Paxton’s $9.3 million, and national donors are likely to keep pouring in money before November. 
• Kansas 
• Kansas, like Iowa, is generally a Republican stronghold. But this year, contending with economic pressure from Trump administration policies and other factors, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) faces a surprisingly strong challenge from the Rev. Adam Hamilton, a Democrat. 
• Hamilton founded a church in the Kansas City metro area called Resurrection, the largest United Methodist congregation in the U.S. He emerged victorious from a field of 11 candidates last week, after proving to be able to raise significant money. 
• [Hamilton has] collected nearly $3.1 million to Marshall’s $611,000… 
• Trump’s tariffs have caused some Kansas farms to close in the past year, which could affect Marshall’s support.