NEW: Alaska Senate Race Shifts Towards Peltola as Democrats Move “Within Striking Distance” of Majority

Cook Political Report: “Moving Alaska into Toss Up also represents a key shift in the overall battle for Senate control. There is now a path for Democrats through the Toss Up column (Ohio, Alaska and Maine) and the Lean Democrat column (North Carolina) to get the four seats they need for a majority”

New York Times: Democrats “have pulled within striking distance of enough Republican-held seats to put the majority in play this fall”

Today, race raters at the Cook Political Report shifted the Alaska Senate race in Democrats’ favor, representing “a key shift in the overall battle for Senate control” as new polls show “ideal recruit” and “proven electoral overperformer” Mary Peltola garnering “a particularly positive impression from voters” thanks to her “independent reputation.”

Meanwhile, with the political environment “working against Sullivan in a way it did not in 2020,” voters are feeling “the destructive effects of high diesel prices at the outset of fishing season” thanks to Sullivan’s support for the Iran war, while “around one-third of Alaskans [who] still receive Medicaid funding” feel the impact of his votes for massive health care cuts. 

The move “represents a key shift in the overall battle for Senate control” and creates “a path for Democrats through the Toss Up column (Ohio, Alaska and Maine) and the Lean Democrat column (North Carolina) to get the four seats they need for a majority.” 

See for yourself:

Cook Political Report: Alaska Senate Shifts Into Toss Up Column

• [The Alaska] race was already destined to be competitive after Democrats landed an ideal recruit in former Rep. Mary Peltola, a proven electoral overperformer, and even a few points could make the difference in the state’s top-four ranked choice voting system.

• Democrats argue that Peltola’s image is once again right-side up after facing millions of dollars in attack ads last cycle; Pelota also outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by 11 points […] Polls from Alaska Survey Research […] have consistently shown Peltola narrowly leading Sullivan and close to 50%.

• Republicans have detested the top-four ranked choice system that was implemented for the 2022 election — and this will be Sen. Sullivan’s first time on the ballot under its new rules. The GOP’s public trashing of the ranking system gives Democrats hope that Republicans will decline to rank more than one candidate, while soft Democrats and independents will use the ranking system to buoy Peltola as an alternative to their top choice.

• Since getting in the race in January, Peltola has posted strong fundraising numbers — almost $9 million in the first quarter — and is expected to have another impressive quarter for the period that just closed. 

• But the environment is working against Sullivan in a way it did not in 2020, when President Donald Trump carried the state by 10 points at the same time the incumbent beat back an independent aligned with Democrats by almost 13 points. [Peltola, an] Alaska Native[,] has built an independent reputation in the state with the slogan “Fish. Family. Freedom.” And […] voters may not forget the destructive effects of high diesel prices at the outset of fishing season. […] Democrats [also] will point out that around one-third of Alaskans still receive Medicaid funding, which was slashed by last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill.

• Moving Alaska into Toss Up also represents a key shift in the overall battle for Senate control. There is now a path for Democrats through the Toss Up column (Ohio, Alaska and Maine) and the Lean Democrat column (North Carolina) to get the four seats they need for a majority.

New York Times: Control of the Senate Is Up for Grabs, Times/Siena Polls Find

• Democrats face an uphill battle to win control of the Senate but have pulled within striking distance of enough Republican-held seats to put the majority in play this fall, according to new New York Times/Siena polls in six Senate battleground states.

• Republicans are hampered by the unpopularity of President Trump and his diminished standing on the economy, while most of the Democratic candidates are so far running ahead of their party’s own struggling brand, the polls show.

• […] the new polls suggest that Democrats have a path.

• Mr. Trump carried five of the states in 2024, and if all six states were considered together he won them by an average of eight percentage points. In the polls, the average of the Senate races in those six states was a tie, with 47 percent for both Republicans and Democrats. The shift shows how far the political environment has tilted in the Democrats’ direction ahead of the midterm elections.

• Voters across all six battlegrounds were thoroughly frustrated by rising prices — and many blamed Mr. Trump. Only 36 percent of voters approved of his handling of cost-of-living issues, including an abysmal 24 percent among independent voters.

• “I’m confronted with it every day,” said Christian Privett, a 57-year-old retired independent voter, from Durham, N.C. about rising costs. “It’s insane. A box of cereal, it’s, like, almost $8 today.”

• Mr. Privett, who described himself as a former Republican “set adrift without a party,” said he planned to vote for Mr. Cooper. “I just want to get back to that, where you don’t wake up every morning wondering what is going to come out of a politician’s mouth to roil the markets or to start a protest or to cause upset,” he said.

• In the poll, Mr. Trump’s average overall approval rating stood at 43 percent, with 54 percent disapproving.

• Economic frustrations appear to have at least cracked open the door of opportunity for Democrats in 2026.

• Voters in each state said the most important issues to them — by far — were jobs, the economy, inflation and the cost of living. And on those measures, Mr. Trump’s image is deeply damaged.

• By a 14-percentage point margin, voters in these Senate battlegrounds said that Mr. Trump’s policies have hurt more than helped.

• The view among crucial independent voters was even bleaker: 52 percent said Mr. Trump’s policies had hurt, while only 22 percent said they had helped.

• Democrats were up by 14 percentage points among voters who said the economy was the most important issue to them. And they are winning 63 percent of the vote among those who said the economy is fair or poor, while Republicans are winning 75 percent of those who said the economy is excellent or good.

• The fundamental problem for Republicans: More voters think the economy is bad than good.

• Mr. Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran, which sharply drove up gas prices, was also unpopular. Only 39 percent of voters approved of his handling of the war, and only 33 percent approved of his management of gas prices. Mr. Trump’s strongest issue was immigration.

• The national political environment is hurting Republicans.

• But he did not have such reservations with Mr. Turek, saying he planned to vote for him in the general election. “He’s far enough on the left that he aligns with a lot of my standards, but not too far to the left that it seems a bit extreme,” said Mr. Major.

• For now, Democrats have an enthusiasm edge: 93 percent of Democrats said they were very likely or almost certain to vote compared with 87 percent of Republicans, across the six states.

• That excitement appears to be helping Democrats blunt natural Republican advantages in states like Iowa, Ohio, Alaska and Texas that have trended Republican in recent years — and which voted for Mr. Trump in 2024 by double-digit percentages. In all four of those states, the Democratic candidate was outperforming the share of voters who said they actually wanted Democrats in charge of the Senate.

• In Alaska, […] Mary Peltola, a Democratic former congresswoman who was the first Native Alaskan elected to Congress, trailed Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, by only two points.

• Ms. Peltola garnered a particularly positive impression from voters, with 65 percent saying she has good character and 62 percent the right kind of morals.

• Andrea Dewees, 49, is an independent voter in Juneau, Alaska, who said she values fiscal conservatism but said that she planned to vote for Ms. Peltola because thinks she is “down to earth” and will root out corruption.

• “She’s not, like, swanky, or trying to make herself rich,” said Ms. Dewees, a humanities professor.
• Ms. Peltola was not an aberration. In five of the six states, the Democratic candidate had a higher favorable rating than their Republican rival.