WHAT THEY’RE SAYING: “Stars Aligning” After Turek Primary Victory Makes Iowa Senate Race “More Competitive” in “Increasingly Favorable” Environment

Turek’s primary victory caused Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball to move Iowa toward Democrats

Cook Political Report: Josh Turek “has a history of winning in areas President Donald Trump carried […]”

New York Times: “Iowa, a state whose economy is heavily reliant on farming, has been struggling under the weight of Mr. Trump’s economic policies and war in Iran”

Iowa Republicans are “sounding the alarm” after Josh Turek won the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s open Senate seat amid “backlash to tariffs and rising fuel and fertilizer prices” caused by Ashley Hinson’s toxic agenda, which is being “felt acutely in Iowa” and creating an “increasingly favorable” environment for Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist. 

Turek is being called a “formidable” statewide candidate with “outside-the-metro appeal” who “has a history of winning in areas President Donald Trump carried” – making “the race more competitive” while the Hawkeye State’s economy is “jolted by tariffs” and “the Iran war [spikes] prices for fertilizer and diesel – critical supplies for the farm state.” 

See for yourself: 

POLITICO: Democrats see the stars aligning in Iowa

• For Iowa Democrats, a decade-long drought may finally be coming to an end. 
• The economic turmoil of the past year-and-a-half has been felt acutely in Iowa, where the agriculture-heavy economy has been jolted by tariffs. Medicaid cuts in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act are ransacking rural health facilities, Democrats say, and several clinics in the state have closed. And the Iran war has spiked prices for fertilizer and diesel — critical supplies for the farm state. 
• That’s all creating a dynamic that Democrats feel will propel voters their way in the midterms, giving them a shot at their first major statewide wins since the Obama era. And they’re confident that their candidates atop the ticket — a slate that was officially nominated in Tuesday’s primaries — will help carry Democrats in down ballot races. 
• “You go into these rural communities, the word that I hear the most is ‘betrayal,’” Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, told POLITICO in an interview late Tuesday night after winning his primary. “We’re leading the nation in farm foreclosures. Farm suicide rates skyrocketing. And so the Trump signs and Trump flags are coming down, because they say we’ve been betrayed.” 
• Even some Republicans are sounding the alarm. 
• “The reality is, if voters do not trust Republican elected officials and candidates with the future of the economy, they’re not going to vote for them this November,” said Drew Klein, an Iowa-based regional vice president of Americans for Prosperity. “That is what is going to decide the election in November.” 
• Both the Senate and governor’s seats are open in Iowa at the same time for the first time since 1968, and Democrats think they have a slate of nominees who could meet the moment. 
• “We’re excited about it, and this is probably the first time in a long, long time when I can say that,” said Patty Judge, a Democrat who served as Iowa agriculture secretary and was Democrats’ last lieutenant governor before her ticket lost in 2010. 
• Iowa Democrats have seen recent flashes of hope. In 2025, Democrats won four of six special elections for the state legislature, breaking Republicans’ supermajority in the state Senate. 
• Farmers — a traditionally Republican leaning coalition — voted heavily for Trump. “[Trump] is not very good for farmers, but farmers have been pretty good to him,” said Tom Miller, a Democrat who served for 40 years as Iowa’s attorney general. 
• But Iowa farmers have been heavily impacted by Trump’s tariffs and trade wars — not to mention the spike in fuel and fertilizer costs.

Cook Political Report: With Turek Primary Win, Iowa Senate Shifts From Likely to Lean Republican

• […] the overall environment in the Hawkeye State is an increasingly favorable one for Democrats given backlash to tariffs and rising fuel and fertilizer prices as a result of the Iran War. Politico reported Tuesday that Hinson said at a recent campaign event that the war will become a “political liability” if it goes on much longer. 
• […] Turek also has a history of winning in areas President Donald Trump carried and has pledged to revive the “prairie populism” of Tom Harkin, the last Democrat elected to the Senate from the state. 
• The limited general election polling conducted so far has shown a tight race to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. An early April survey from GOP pollster Echelon Insights showed Turek and Hinson tied within the margin of error. Democrats are also enthused by private polling from both parties which has shown state Auditor Rob Sand leading the open race for governor, and even Republicans privately admit that together Sand and Turek could make a formidable statewide ticket.

New York Times: Josh Turek, a Paralympian, Wins the Democratic Senate Primary in Iowa

• Running as a self-described “prairie populist,” Mr. Turek, 47, cast himself as a “battle-tested” candidate who could win the support of independents and Republicans in a state President Trump won three times. 
• “I outperformed the top of the ticket by Trump by 50 percent, more than any other Democrat in the state,” Mr. Turek said at a debate last month. “I know what it takes to win.” 
• Many national Democrats saw Mr. Turek, who won twice in a conservative-leaning statehouse district, as the stronger contender. He won the endorsement of former Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa — the architect of the Americans With Disabilities Act — and the last Democrat to hold the seat. 
• Iowa, a state whose economy is heavily reliant on farming, has been struggling under the weight of Mr. Trump’s economic policies and war in Iran. The barrage of tariffs last year increased the cost of machinery and materials that many Iowan farmers rely on. And the ongoing war with Iran raised the cost of gas and drove Iowa fertilizer prices to near-historic highs. 
• Since Mr. Trump took office, Democrats have won two special elections for State Senate seats in conservative-leaning districts, raising hopes that the party could take those victories to statewide races.
  

CBS News: Iowa Senate race set between Democrat Josh Turek, Republican Ashley Hinson after projected primary wins

• Turek has run on his record of working across the aisle and has touted representing the most conservative district in Iowa to send a Democrat to the state legislature. 
• [Democrats are] hopeful that Hinson, who’s vowed to be the president’s top ally in the Senate, may struggle at the ballot box amid some unpopular Trump administration policies, like tariffs. Meanwhile, Democrats say the Senate race could be buoyed by Auditor Rob Sand’s strong gubernatorial bid.

HuffPost: Moderate Josh Turek Wins Democratic Nomination For Iowa Senate Race

• State Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympics gold medalist with a history of winning over voters who backed President Donald Trump, won the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s Senate race on Tuesday night, giving national Democrats the candidate they believe has the best chance of defeating Republican Ashley Hinson in November. 
• “His nomination tonight puts the Iowa Senate seat firmly in play, and in November, Iowans will reject Ashley Hinson’s self-serving politics and send Josh Turek to the U.S. Senate,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kirsten Gillibrand said in a statement not long after Turek’s victory was announced. 
• The state’s sluggish economy has made GOP leaders [in Iowa] unpopular, and specific Trump policies ― including cuts to rural healthcare and the price of fertilizer spiking in the aftermath of the Iran war ― have only made the situation worse.

Roll Call: In Iowa Senate race, Hinson-Turek matchup set for November

• [W]ith the coming retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, Democrats see an opportunity to flip the Senate seat. 
• Throughout the campaign, Turek portrayed himself as a consensus-builder who can win over Republicans, noting that he hails from the more conservative western reaches of the state. 
• “I am feeling hope here in Iowa for the first time in a very long time, and this is because Iowans know that we need change,” Turek told supporters after the race was called. “The status quo is not working. We need a fighter for the people, not for the billionaires, large corporations and political donors. And this is our chance to change this state.”

Axios Des Moines: Iowa Democrats stage a rural comeback with Sand and Turek

• Iowa Democrats are staging a blue comeback with Josh Turek and Rob Sand atop the ticket. 
• Turek’s U.S. Senate primary win and Sand’s uncontested path to the governor’s race give Democrats two statewide candidates with outside-the-metro appeal — the kind of profile CNN framed as central to Democrats’ hopes for a rural revival. 
• Turek’s win appears to have made the race more competitive — Cook Political Report shifted Iowa’s U.S. Senate race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican after the primary.