Charlie Cook: “Senate Republicans’ Spending Is Almost Entirely Defensive”

As Charlie Cook writes in a new analysis, nearly 100% of the fall television ad reservations from the NRSC and the McConnell-aligned Super PAC Senate Leadership Fund are being spent to protect vulnerable GOP incumbents. After failing to expand the Senate map in their direction over the past year, Washington Republicans are struggling and planning to spend essentially no money going on offense.

In a major shift from last cycle, “the political environment and a moderately challenging map are putting Senate Republicans almost entirely on defense this year.” That reality is backed up by the numbers: $94 million of the $97 million in reservations by the NRSC and SLF so far has been booked to rescue seven weak incumbents — including nearly $11 million for Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Cook Political Report: Senate Republicans’ Spending Is Almost Entirely Defensive

Charlie Cook

May 26, 2020

Key Points:

• Just as a very challenging map put Senate Democrats mostly on defense in 2018, the political environment and a moderately challenging map are putting Senate Republicans almost entirely on defense this year.

• Figures compiled for Senate Democrats indicate that by the middle of last week, Senate Republicans and their allied PAC had reserved $97 million in television air time for the period from June 1 through Election Day, with $94 million of that booked on behalf of seven GOP incumbents who are in various levels of jeopardy.

• It does not include time buys or reservations for the period prior to the end of May, so the actual spending levels are much higher. Just under $2.5 million was booked for John James’s race against Peters.

• The beneficiaries of the $94 million are Martha McSally in Arizona, Cory Gardner in Colorado, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, Susan Collins in Maine, Steve Daines in Montana, and Thom Tillis in North Carolina.

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