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Cook Political Report Moves Five Senate Seats in Democrats’ Direction, New Analysis Finds “Democrats Are A Slight Favorite to Win the Senate Majority”

Battleground Senate Races in Iowa and Georgia Move to Toss-Up, As GOP Operatives Grow Increasingly Pessimistic About Holding their Majority

Republican Strategists: “It’s Grim” … “The Expanding Map Has Made It Really Hard” …  “The Bottom Fell Out for Us”

In a new analysis from Jessica Taylor, the Cook Political Report tonight moved five different Senate race ratings in Democrats’ direction, including shifting two more seats to Toss-Up – Iowa (Ernst) and Georgia (Perdue) – that Republicans did not anticipate would be competitive at the start of this election cycle. Cook also projected that “Democrats are a slight favorite to win the Senate majority” as of right now and have “multiple plausible paths” to flip the chamber, as even Republicans strategists have grown increasingly pessimistic about their ability to hold the majority. The race rating update comes after Inside Elections also moved eight Senate races in Democrats’ direction this month, and follows a record-breaking fundraising quarter where 13 Democratic candidates outraised Republicans in GOP-held Senate seats.

Here are the highlights from Cook Political Report’s new overview of the Senate map:

Cook Political Report: Almost 100 Days Out, Democrats Are Favored to Take Back the Senate
By Jessica Taylor

Key Points:

  • With just over 100 days until Election Day, the political climate appears dire for Republicans across the board… As of now, Democrats are a slight favorite to win the Senate majority.
  • “Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November,” remarked one GOP pollster. “It’s grim. There’s just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago we wouldn’t have considered at risk.” 
  • “If you’re an incumbent in a bad environment sitting at 44 percent, you should be pretty damn scared,” another alarmed Republican strategist said. “The expanding map has made it really hard, and there’s just a lot of Democratic momentum right now.”
  • “The bottom fell out for us at the end of May and June,” with worsening numbers continuing into July now, one national GOP strategist looking at polls across the map bemoaned.
  • The map and money are working against Republicans: Democratic candidates have the fundraising momentum, with challengers crushing virtually every incumbent in a competitive race in the second quarter reports released last week.
  • Party committees and the major outside PACs for each side are also spending heavily, with the most overall invested in North Carolina, a race some Republicans are feeling more pessimistic about.
  • By looking at the numbers, the battleground becomes clear — Arizona is falling down the list for the GOP to defend, and Colorado is threatening to. If the election were today, Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina stand as the most vulnerable, closely followed by Maine. That leaves what Republicans see as the tipping point states of Montana, Iowa and Georgia. But they have other states they have to watch and worry about, including Kansas, Texas, and even Alaska and South Carolina.
  • But the bottom line is that even Republicans believe Michigan is gone for Trump, and even if James might be able to overperform the president, especially in the Detroit suburbs, polls don’t show it’s enough, so it remains in Lean Democratic.
  • “Trump is doing Cory no favors,” said one Colorado Republican. “If Trump loses Colorado by 12 or 13 points, it’s hard to see how Cory can withstand that.” 
  • In talking with multiple GOP strategists this week, it’s becoming clear that many are beginning to give up on McSally, as poll after public poll have shown her trailing. She still has her own hefty fundraising to rely on, but Kelly has double the cash on hand now. 
  • “McSally has scar tissue” from 2018, as one Republican observer put it. And many don’t believe she’s improved as a candidate or learned many lessons from that loss.
  • Iowa is the newest worry for Republicans, a race we are shifting from Lean Republican to Toss Up. We last moved this race into a more competitive category back in March, when freshman Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s re-election numbers were showing signs of softening. Now they’re in a very perilous position, and this race could become the tipping point of control in the Senate.
  • Both GOP and Democratic polling are now showing the same statistically tied race. And Ernst has had some missteps in the race and isn’t performing as well as Republicans had hoped.
  • “The environment is even worse there than it was in June,’ bemoaned one national GOP strategist. “Ernst is underwater, and she needs some work.” 
  • With the Peach State looking more like a swing state than ever, buoyed by growth and diversification in the Atlanta suburbs that are repelled by Trump, it couldn’t be worse timing that there is not one, but two Senate seats up there this cycle. At present, Georgia is the newest state that is giving Republicans a heavy dose of heartburn.
  • At the outset of the cycle, freshman GOP Sen. David Perdue looked well-heeled for re-election. We moved this race into a more competitive Lean Republican category in May though, as it became apparent that the race was tightening, reflecting the political evolution in the state. Now, in what may be our most surprising and somewhat controversial rating shift, new polling numbers from both Democrats and private Republican polling merits a move into the Toss Up column, and ultimately what appears to be driving this race’s change is just a very poor environment here.

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