Cook Political Report: “Democrats Have Expanded The Map While Republicans Haven’t Really Taken Many, If Any, Races Completely Off The Table”

The final overview of the Senate map from Cook Political Report underscores how Democrats have dramatically expanded the field of competitive races in the final days of this cycle. More than half of all GOP Senate seats on the ballot this cycle have a competitive rating — “a feat that even some Republicans are privately praising Democrats for while continuing to bemoan the predicament they’re finding themselves in for the closing days.”

Cook’s competitive races include “12 GOP-held seats in Lean or Toss Up, and just two for Democrats.” Since January, Cook has moved 10 Senate races in Democrats’ direction, and just one toward Republicans. With the majority at risk and Democrats building a significant grassroots fundraising advantage, “outside groups like Senate Leadership Fund and their wealthy donors” have been racing to “fill in the gaps” for vulnerable Republicans in the final weeks.

Today’s overview includes one final ratings shift — Mississippi moving in Democrats’ direction. Mike Espy has been “building an impressive campaign” and a “vast spending disparity” in his rematch against Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Meanwhile, Hyde-Smith’s fundraising has been “downright abysmal” and even Republicans admit they have “frustrations” with her campaign.

That addition of yet another GOP Senate seat moving further in play “showcases just how much Democrats have expanded the map while Republicans haven’t really taken many, if any, races completely off the table.”

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Cook Political Report: Final 2020 Senate Overview: Democrats Remain Favorites to Take Senate, Mississippi Shifts to Likely Republican

Jessica Taylor

October 29, 2020

Key Points:

• And given that Trump now wants to completely turn the page on COVID even as cases and hospitalizations are spiking to record levels, the White House — and by extension Senate Republicans — still remain far out of step with what many Americans see as the most pressing issue this election.

• Our competitive universe of races remains the same that is lopsided toward Democrats — 12 GOP-held seats in Lean or Toss Up, and just two for Democrats. Since January, we have moved ten races in Democrats’ favor, and only one toward Republicans.

• We are making just one shift: Mississippi moves from Solid to Likely Republican. While we had moved it toward the GOP earlier this year into solid, it’s now a race that now deserves to at least be on the radar come Tuesday given the vast spending disparity that Democratic challenger Mike Espy has built in his rematch with GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, whose fundraising has been downright abysmal for any incumbent, even in a typically safe state.

• That addition showcases just how much Democrats have expanded the map while Republicans haven’t really taken many, if any, races completely off the table.

• More than half of all GOP seats up this cycle are in Lean or Toss Up right now, with an additional two, Kentucky and now Mississippi, in our Likely column. That’s a feat that even some Republicans are privately praising Democrats for while continuing to bemoan the predicament they’re finding themselves in for the closing days.

• Not far behind is Iowa, a headache the GOP certainly didn’t expect to have at the beginning of the cycle or even the year. Despite being one of the stars of the 2014 class, Sen. Joni Ernst has seen her image drop in the state, and attacks on her as having “gone Washington” are breaking through, perhaps punctuated by a debate last week where she didn’t know the current price of soybeans.

• After losing a special election runoff two years ago to Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 7 points, former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy has been building an impressive campaign that has dwarfed what appear to be meager efforts by Hyde-Smith. He’s outraised her more than 3-to-1, including nearly nine-fold just since July. 

• That sizable advantage has allowed Espy to batter Hyde-Smith on the air, too, along with help from coordinated funds from the DSCC. The week of October 20, he outspent her by just over $1 million to around $202,000. For this final week, Hyde-Smith has only reserved just about $166,000 compared to another $1 million from Espy. The disparity hasn’t gone unnoticed by Republicans in the state who do have some frustrations with Hyde-Smith’s campaign.

• If Democrats take back the Senate… the fundraising advantage challengers built early on, largely enabled by grassroots small-dollar donors, will also play a large part in that victory. When looking at all races we rate as anything other than solid; virtually every Democratic candidate outraised their GOP opponent over the past year, except for Texas. (In Georgia, most of appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s money has come from her own pockets).

• But if Republicans are able to somehow hold on or just hold Democrats to even a slim 50-50 tie (but with an assumed Biden victory) or 51-49, it will be because outside groups like Senate Leadership Fund and their wealthy donors were able to fill in the gaps in the final weeks of the race.

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