*NEW* INSIDE ELECTIONS: DEMS HAVE “MORE THAN ONE” PATH TO MAJORITY, SHIFTS 8 RACES IN DEMS’ FAVOR. Inside Elections — which wrote last year that Democrats had a path to the majority — today shifted eight races in Democrats’ favor and confirmed we have “more than one legitimate path” to the majority this November. Democratic chances “improved significantly” within the last few weeks, citing Democratic challengers’ “astounding” fundraising hauls and how they’ve expanded the map, turning “previously lower-tier contests” into “neck-and-neck races.” Here’s the list:
POLITICO: REPUBLICAN MAJORITY IN “SERIOUS DANGER.” In their new analysis of the Senate map, Politico wrote “Democrats have both built leads in states that were previously considered up-for-grabs” as well as put new states firmly on the map, “expanding their path to a majority” and moving the overall race for Senate control “close to a coin flip.” Both Iowa and Montana were moved to Toss-Up.
MCCONNELL GROUPS POUR MILLIONS INTO GEORGIA AND KENTUCKY. Another sign Republican panic is escalating? Top McConnell-aligned outside groups are pouring millions into states they’d previously taken for granted. In Georgia: The NRSC and McConnell-aligned groups are spending more than $24 million in advertising to boost vulnerable Senator Perdue. In Kentucky: Republicans added $4.3 million to help Mitch McConnell – bringing the total spend there to over $15 million. Taken together, Republicans are on the hook for close to $40 million in two states they did not anticipate spending in one year ago.
DEMOCRATS POST “EYE-POPPING” Q2 HAULS — “REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGNS SHOULD BE ALARMED.” It was a bad week for Senate Republicans: their concerns about losing the majority continue to grow, this time due to the “massive fundraising hauls” from Democratic Senate challengers. The latest round of reporting about Republicans’ growing anxiety highlights how Democrats’ “eye-popping hauls” have “alarmed top Republican lawmakers” who are facing tough reelection fights and “fear November’s election could be devastating.” The historic fundraising hauls in states like South Carolina and Kansas are proof that Democrats have expanded the map and will be able to compete “aggressively in races that were not expected to be in play this cycle.” One veteran Republican campaign operative put it bluntly: “Republican campaigns should be alarmed.”
Read more about how Democratic candidates are running strong campaigns that will have the necessary resources to compete and win in November and check out the coverage here.
VULNERABLE SENATE INCUMBENTS DISAPPEAR PRESIDENT IN THEIR ADS, BUT CAN’T AVOID TOXIC RECORDS. GOP Senate candidates made a political calculation not to hold the president accountable and it’s backfiring now in their increasingly tough elections. The new “strategy” to claim they’re independent won’t fool voters, who know these Republican incumbents have consistently put their party ahead of doing what’s right — which is why they were vulnerable in the first place. Washington Post: Trump who? Senate GOP candidates in tight races avoid any mention of the president in campaign ads.
SENATE REPUBLICANS’ LAWSUIT TO STRIKE DOWN ACA TOXIC WITH SWING VOTERS. The Kaiser Family Foundation reported this week that the Republican lawsuit to strike down the entire Affordable Care Act will likely “alienate” independent voters. Even worse for Senate Republicans who voted for the GOP tax bill that set this reckless lawsuit in motion, the data shows that “going after popular ACA consumer protections may even create some vulnerability” among Republican voters. The new report is the latest evidence that the GOP’s crusade to attack pre-existing conditions protections, Medicaid expansion, and other health care benefits while giving the richest 0.1% a massive tax windfall is deeply toxic with swing voters across the country.
RINSE & REPEAT: MCSALLY LIES ABOUT PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS PROTECTIONS. Unelected Senator Martha McSally is again on defense about her health care record, and again lying about it in a new ad. Here are the fact checks from the last few times she falsely claimed she will protect coverage for pre-existing conditions:
SENATE GOP **STILL** OPPOSES EXTENDING EMERGENCY UNEMPLOYMENT RELIEF AS MILLIONS OF AMERICANS REMAIN OUT OF WORK. Despite the looming deadline at the end of the month, Senate Republicans are “in no rush to act” to extend emergency unemployment relief, taking a two-week summer break from Washington. As the U.S. leads the world in the number of reported coronavirus cases and deaths and the surging pandemic undermines economic recovery efforts, millions of “Americans relied on unemployment aid” at the end of last month according to a Census Bureau survey. A new POLITICO report also finds that Senate Republicans allowing the $600 per week emergency unemployment relief to expire would put a “financial squeeze” on communities, with an “estimated $15 billion per week” being sapped from the economy and jobless workers in every state seeing their weekly benefit drop by at least 50%.
CORNYN MEDDLES IN DEM RUNOFF, SCARED TO FACE VETERAN MJ HEGAR. Senator Cornyn is “meddling” in the Democratic primary and taking the extraordinary step of burning through his own campaign cash to avoid facing decorated combat veteran MJ Hegar in battleground Texas. His six-figure ad buy following a series of polling that show he’s in an increasingly weak position. According to the UT/Texas Politics Project Poll, Cornyn’s approval rating underwater. Last week, Public Policy Polling found that Cornyn is a “nonentity” who “has basically no profile in Texas,” and the general election match-up “is likely to be a highly competitive race.”
MAYBE CORNYN SHOULD SPEND LESS TIME MEDDLING & MORE TIME READING HIS CORONAVIRUS BRIEFINGS.
FACTCHECK: “CORNYN’S CLAIM IS WRONG ON MULTIPLE COUNTS.” From Politifact: “Cornyn’s claim is wrong on multiple counts: First, numerous children across the country and in Texas have contracted the coronavirus and some have died as a result. Research indicates that children are able to transmit the coronavirus, but there has been little research into how the rate of transmission may vary compared to adults. Transmission involving children does not appear to make up the bulk of the spread. We rate this claim False.”
KANSAS GOP PRIMARY TAKES “DECISIVELY DARKER TURN” AS CANDIDATES, GROUPS DUMP MILLIONS INTO NEGATIVE ADS. The GOP “headache” in Kansas is getting worse. The primary has taken a “decisively darker turn” and groups linked to national Republicans are sinking more than $3 million to “stop Kobach.” As “negative ads begin flying” against nearly every candidate in the race, the eventual nominee will emerge damaged and broke to face Dr. Barbara Bollier. Bollier has posted the biggest fundraising numbers of the entire field, most recently breaking Kansas records in Q2, and remains in a dead heat with the Republican candidates according to a recent poll.
NH GOP CAUGHT USING “PHOTO TRICKERY TO HOODWINK REPORTERS.” New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Don Bolduc was called out this week for falsifying his military record and misleading Granite State voters about his service. Bolduc embellished his military career in his announcement video and has “done little to correct the record when the news media has inaccurately reported this claim.” The Bolduc campaign then circulated these inaccurate stories on social media and in fundraising appeals, with one endorsement pointing specifically to the embellishment that Bolduc was part of the team portrayed in the 2018 film, “12 Strong.” Read more about Bolduc’s misleading ad and refusal to correct the record here.
IN THE STATES
KS — Kansas City Star: Is Kansas in play this fall? Democrat Bollier sets fundraising record in Senate race
MI — AP: Peters raises $5.2M over 3 months in Senate reelection bid
MT — KTVH: Bullock smashes fundraising record; takes in $7.7m in 2nd Qtr
NC — Raleigh News & Observer: Cunningham campaign breaks NC fundraising record for Senate race in run vs. Tillis
SC — Charleston Post & Courier: SC Democrat Jaime Harrison reports raising $14 million last quarter vs. Lindsey Graham
SC — The State: Jaime Harrison sets another fundraising record during second quarter of 2020
TX — Texas Tribune: MJ Hegar maintains big fundraising lead over Royce West in U.S. Senate runoff
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Lauren Passalacqua
@laurenvpass
Stewart Boss
@stew_boss
Helen Kalla
@helen_kalla
Shea Necheles
@sheanecheles
Regina Anderson
@reginasopinion
###
