DSCC QUICK TAKES: 3 WEEKS TO ELECTION DAY—GRAHAM KICKS OFF DAY 2 OF SCOTUS HEARINGS ATTACKING ACA—NEW DSCC VIDEO: HEALTH CARE IS AT STAKE

MEMO: 3 WEEKS UNTIL ELECTION DAY, DEMOCRATS HAVE PUT MORE THAN A DOZEN SENATE SEATS IN PLAY. The DSCC released a new memo today highlighting how Democrats have forced Republicans to defend more than a dozen GOP-held seats and control of the Senate remains firmly in play as we move into the final three weeks. Here are the top takeaways:

1. RATINGS CHANGES: Core Battlegrounds, Expansion States Move in Democrats’ Direction. Major nonpartisan election analysts have not moved any of the competitive races in Republicans’ favor in the past two months. Meanwhile, a growing number of GOP-held seats have become more competitive or now tilt or lean towards Democratic candidates.
2. FUNDRAISING: Democratic Challengers Shattering Fundraising Records. Democrats are announcing record-shattering Q3 fundraising reports, fueled by small-dollar donors giving at unprecedented levels to combat the billionaire mega-donors and special interests and end Mitch McConnell’s majority
3. OUTSIDE SPENDING: McConnell Allies Dumping Tens of Millions Into Republican-Leaning States. In the final three weeks, the constellation of McConnell-aligned groups is now spending more than $93 MILLION defending GOP-held seats – nine of which are in states that President Trump carried in 2016: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. In October alone, the NRSC and McConnell’s Super PAC network added more than $20 million into Alaska, Kansas, and South Carolina.
4. POLLING: Health Care Continues to Resonate As Voters Prioritize COVID Relief Over Rushing to Fill Supreme Court Vacancy, Oppose Overturning ACA. The public’s top concern remains the public health crisis and if Senate Republicans’ health care voting records weren’t already toxic enough, they have become an indefensible liability in the weeks leading up to the election. Coronavirus cases are surging across the country, and Mitch McConnell’s Senate has blocked a new relief package from moving forward for months. Instead of passing more relief, Senate Republicans are rushing to confirm a Supreme Court justice who could be the deciding vote ruling in favor of their party’s dangerous lawsuit to overturn the Affordable Care Act. Poll after poll shows the lawsuit and the decision to fill the Supreme Court vacancy are deeply out of step with voters.

Here’s the bottom line: Democrats are in an increasingly strong position to flip the Senate with just three weeks to go. Read the full memo here.

GRAHAM KICKS OFF DAY 2 OF SCOTUS HEARINGS ATTACKING ACA. Senator Lindsey Graham kicked off day two of the Senate Judiciary Committee’s hearings for President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee with “a sustained attack” on the Affordable Care Act, underscoring how the future of the health care law and its protections for people with pre-existing conditions is at stake once again. While some vulnerable Senate Republicans have tried to “play down” “the court’s chances of knocking down some or all” of the ACA, Graham’s opening statement decrying the popular health care law as “a disaster” made it abundantly clear that Senate Republicans still want to repeal the health care law and are rushing to confirm a nominee hostile to the Affordable Care Act in time for the Supreme Court to hear their party’s lawsuit to overturn the entire health care law, further increasing “the court’s chances of knocking down some or all” of the ACA. CNN: Sen. Lindsey Graham kicked off today’s hearing by attacking the Affordable Care Act

NEW VIDEO: POPULAR HEALTH CARE LAW AT STAKE AS REPUBLICAN SENATE RUSHES TO FILL SCOTUS VACANCY. The DSCC released a new video highlighting how the future of the Affordable Care Act and its protections for people with pre-existing conditions is at stake as hearings begin in Republicans’ rush to ram through President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee who is hostile to the ACA. If the GOP lawsuit is successful, it would eliminate protections for people with pre-existing conditions, kick an estimated 20 million Americans off their health insurance, end Medicaid expansion for at least 12 million people, and cut other health care benefits while giving the richest 0.1% a massive tax windfall. Despite recent efforts to “obscure their positions” on health care with false and misleading ads and downplay the risk their lawsuit poses to the popular law, the reality is every Senate Republican voted for the 2017 tax bill that set this lawsuit in motion and has supported or enabled this lawsuit.

WATCH: 

RATINGS CHANGE: COOK POLITICAL MOVES #GASEN, #TXSEN, #AKSEN IN DEMOCRATS’ DIRECTION. Jessica Taylor of Cook Political Report moved another three Senate races in Democrats’ favor this morning – Alaska, Texas, and the Georgia special election – and projected that “three weeks from Election Day, Democrats are now the clear favorite to flip control of the Senate.” One top GOP pollster even told Cook that “Republicans are just in trouble everywhere…it’s all bad. There are no shards of good news.” The recent record-breaking Q3 fundraising numbers from Democratic candidates “seem to be portending a green wave or tsunami that could very well spur a blue earthquake at the polls in just a few weeks.” Read Cook’s full analysis on the state of the Senate map here → Cook Political Report: Three Weeks Out, Three Rating Changes Toward Democrats Add To a Growing Edge in Battle for Senate Control

• #AKSEN: Gross “reported raising a staggering $9 million in the third quarter, which goes a long way in the Last Frontier” … while “public and private polling now shows this race tightening” … “spending from Republicans shows they’re worried about both the numbers and Gross’s financial advantage — the Senate Leadership Fund has spent or reserved nearly $4.2 million here, while the NRSC is also about to go on air this week.” Likely R → Lean R
• #GASEN: Warnock has seen “support in polls skyrocket, to the point where he’s now polling in the lead” … leaving “Loeffler and Collins to fight for the remaining runoff spot, and the battle royale between the two that national Republicans had feared would come to fruition has indeed forced both candidates to run as far to the right as humanly possible” … “it’s going to be very hard even to attempt to pivot back to the center in just two months” … “that’s not a recipe for winning a statewide race in a rapidly changing Georgia.” Lean R → Toss Up
• #TXSEN: “In a sign Cornyn could be having cash problems, Hegar has outspent the incumbent now on air for the past two weeks” … “Texas overall is a competitive state this year at every level” … “another clear sign that Republicans are on edge — even Cornyn, a typically loyal Trump ally, admitted in an interview with the Houston Chronicle that the president had ‘let his guard down’ on coronavirus and created ‘confusion’ with his rhetoric.” Likely R → Lean R

EYE-POPPING DEMOCRATIC FUNDRAISING PUTS GOP ON “DEFENSIVE.” The Associated Press took a look at how “Democratic Senate candidates are mounting a push in Republican states” thanks to massive fundraising success that has put “continued GOP control of the chamber at risk.” In states across the map, the resource advantage for Democratic challengers “has heightened a sense of dread among Republicans.” Now, GOP outside groups aligned with Mitch McConnell are being forced to spend in “once unthinkable states” as they face a further expanded map in these final weeks. AP: Senate Democrats’ fundraising success puts GOP on defensive

“REPUBLICANS IN DISARRAY”: GOP WORRY ELECTORAL CATASTROPHE COULD COST THEM CONTROL OF SENATE. New reporting from the New York Times highlights how a toxic president, a nonexistent Supreme Court bump, and Democratic challengers raising massive sums from grassroots supporters have sent Republicans spiraling and scrambling to distance themselves from Trump. Here’s the problem for these increasingly desperate vulnerable incumbents: they’ve spent the last four years being a rubber stamp for the president. Voters will see last-minute attempts to rewrite their records as nothing more than a desperate election year stunt. New York Times: Republicans in Disarray

MINNEAPOLIS STAR TRIBUNE ENDORSES SENATOR TINA SMITH FOR REELECTION. The Minneapolis Star Tribune Editorial Board endorsed Senator Tina Smith for re-election, because she “best reflects Minnesota values” and “is a quietly persistent force who studies the issues, respects the facts and is willing to work with all who seek positive solutions.” The Board highlighted Smith’s “impressive number of accomplishments” over the past two years and how Smith has “developed a solid track record for working with fellow Democrats but also Republicans, leading to important wins for Minnesota and the country.” They praised her “nuanced, thoughtful approach,” concluding that Smith “has earned a full-six year term in the Senate.” Minneapolis Star Tribune: EDITORIAL | U.S. Senate endorsement: Tina Smith best reflects Minnesota values

NEW POLLS: CUNNINGHAM LEADS IN NORTH CAROLINA. Three new polls of the North Carolina Senate race all found Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham comfortably leading vulnerable incumbent Senator Thom Tillis. The three polls all show Cunningham gaining ground in the race with a substantial lead over Tillis. The WRAL News poll also found that voters were “unforgiving about the COVID situation” and “tie the Republican Tillis to a somewhat more cavalier, reckless attitude about the pandemic that is coming from the head of the Republican Party in the White House.”

DEM AD WATCH

AZ – Mark Kelly’s latest ad features his wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who shares what she knows about her husband Mark’s commitment to service and how he will be able to serve Arizonans in the Senate. Watch. 

CO – In John Hickenlooper’s new ad, current Governor Jared Polis discusses the former governor’s dedication to public service and helping the people of Colorado, no matter what the Republican attack ads say. Watch. 

MS – Mike Espy talks in his most recent ad about how he’s always worked to put Mississippi first, from his time as a Congressman to his work as Secretary of Agriculture. Watch. 

IN THE STATES

AL – AP: Tuberville Dealings Include Failed Hedge Fund, Charity

AK – Yahoo News: Alaska’s Senate race rocked by leaked videos, China ties and even a dead bear

GA – WMAZ: Perdue meets Georgia Senate candidates Jon Ossoff, Shane Hazel in virtual debate

IA – KMEG: Theresa Greenfield tours Woodbury County

KS – Vox: Barbara Bollier is making the Kansas Senate race competitive for Democrats

KS – Newsweek: Kansas Democratic Senate Candidate Breaks Fundraising Record, Holds 3-Point Poll Lead Over GOP Opponent

KY – Lexington Herald-Leader: McGrath: ‘We’ve been sucker punched.’ McConnell: I help KY ‘punch above its weight.’

ME – Maine Beacon: Collins admits Republicans don’t have “comprehensive” health care plan if ACA repealed

MI – Detroit Free Press: Sen. Gary Peters opens up about his family’s personal abortion story

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