GOP Voters “Sour” on Senate Republicans As The 2022 Cycle Begins

New Morning Consult Polling: “Republican Voters Have Taken A Dimmer View Of Most Of Their Senators In Recent Months”

Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson Has “One Of The Weakest Approval Ratings” Among GOP Voters, Is “The Most Unpopular Republican Among The Broader Electorate” Up For Re-Election

Morning Consult polling released this morning reveals major warning signs for Republican incumbents and an increasingly toxic Senate GOP leadership struggling to recuperate after losing their majority, as “Republican voters have taken a dimmer view of most of their senators in recent months.”

The new polling highlights the immense challenges Republicans face as Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s base support evaporates over his too little, too late efforts to distance the party from former President Donald Trump’s election loss. The basic acknowledgement of President Joe Biden’s victory and criticism of Trump’s conduct “preceded a weakening in state GOP voter support for many of the conference’s members, underscoring Trump’s enduring hold on the party’s base.” Republican strategists are also fearful of “overcorrecting the base problem and firing up Democratic voters” and the looming threat of “contentious primary elections” destabilizing Republican efforts in 2022.

McConnell’s approval fell a massive 29 points among Republicans in Kentucky, while their disapproval of his job performance jumped up to 54%. In Missouri, Republican strategists view Senator Roy Blunt as having “soft numbers” and being “particularly vulnerable to a primary challenge” because of his weakness with GOP voters. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson “starts the 2022 cycle with one of the weakest approval ratings” and is “also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year.”

“Senate Republicans just lost their majority and are facing the bleak prospect of losing more seats in 2022 as messy intraparty battles consume the GOP, endangering incumbents and driving challenger candidates further outside the mainstream in a growing number of open seats,” said DSCC spokesperson Stewart Boss. “After years of indulging Trump’s worst conduct and encouraging false conspiracies, Republicans are losing control of their party and have no agenda beyond trying to block relief and obstruct progress for the American people.”

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Morning Consult: As 2022 Campaign Begins, GOP Voters Sour on Senate Republicans
By Eli Yokley
February 16, 2021

• Retaking control of the Senate chamber next year is within the GOP’s reach, but first the party’s senators will need to cure the collective political hangover brought on by the ignominious exit of former President Donald Trump and come to grips with his continued influence with their voting base. 

• That’s no minor feat, according to Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking data, which shows that Republican voters have taken a dimmer view of most of their senators in recent months.

• The mere acceptance of President Joe Biden’s victory – culminating in the Jan. 6 votes to accept the Electoral College count after rioters acting in Trump’s name stormed the Capitol – and criticism of the outgoing president’s conduct preceded a weakening in state GOP voter support for many of the conference’s members, underscoring Trump’s enduring hold on the party’s base as the Senate GOP looks to avoid contentious primary elections and keep the Trump coalition united and energized going into next year’s midterm elections.

• “You cannot say, ‘Trump voters, come out and vote and support us’ while saying ‘Trump’s a horrible person,’” said Shermichael Singleton, a former Republican consultant who worked on Ben Carson’s 2016 presidential bid. “These people are not stupid.”

• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who cruised to re-election last year before losing the Senate majority and emerging as a critic of Trump’s assault on the election process, saw the sharpest intraparty drop when comparing surveys conducted before the November election and throughout the month of January ahead of Trump’s impeachment trial. His approval rating fell 29 percentage points among Kentucky Republicans, to 41 percent, while the share who disapprove of his job performance increased to 54 percent.

• In Missouri, Republican strategists interviewed over the past week view Blunt as particularly vulnerable to a primary challenge from someone like former Gov. Eric Greitens, who has not publicly ruled out a bid. Sixty-two percent of voters approve of Blunt’s job performance – with 18 percent doing so strongly, and he remains in weaker standing with Missouri Republicans than his junior colleague, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who, unlike Blunt, led Senate efforts to challenge the election result.

• In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson – who aligned with Trump’s election challenge publicly while reportedly admitting privately that Biden won – starts the 2022 cycle with one of the weakest approval ratings (61 percent) among GOP voters. He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year.

• But Trump won’t be on the ballot next year, and the January Georgia Senate runoffs offered a potential warning sign for what happens to GOP turnout when Trump is actively undermining the party’s efforts or isn’t sufficiently invested in helping it…

• Along with the push from the right to embrace the former president, there’s also the fear of overcorrecting the base problem and firing up Democratic voters as Biden’s party looks to hold Senate seats in Arizona and Georgia, and rack up wins in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

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