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MEMO: One Year Out, Senate Democrats Strongly Positioned To Protect & Expand Our Majority

November 8, 2021

TO: Interested Parties
FR: Christie Roberts, DSCC Executive Director
RE: One Year Out, Senate Democrats Strongly Positioned To Protect & Expand Our Majority

One year out from the 2022 election, three important factors are shaping the dynamics of Senate races and setting the stage for Democrats to protect and expand our Senate majority:

  1. Flawed Republican candidates.   
  2. Vicious, expensive Republican primaries — intensified by Trump. 
  3. Strong Democratic incumbents who are building formidable campaign operations.

Coupled with a favorable map, GOP retirements and a winning economic contrast with Republicans, these factors are laying the groundwork for Democrats’ success in 2022. Here’s the state of the Senate campaign one year out:

Flawed Republican Candidates

The Washington Post: “Domestic violence, sexual abuse: A number of Senate GOP candidates have to answer for ugly allegations.”

Across the Senate battlegrounds, Republican candidates — many of whom are backed by Trump — are facing scrutiny over major personal and political vulnerabilities.

Vicious, Expensive Republican Primaries

Axios: “GOP Attacks Its Own.”

Backed by multi-million dollar advertising campaigns, Republican Senate candidates are engaged in open warfare — and deploying surprisingly personal attacks. This dynamic has intensified as they compete for Trump’s endorsement or to disqualify his chosen candidate.

  • In Arizona: A group supporting Blake Masters has launched a television ad which “blasts” Mark Brnovich over his insufficient past support for Trump’s election fraud claims.
  • In North Carolina: Groups backing Trump endorsed candidate Ted Budd have attacked Pat McCrory in television ads, calling him a “disloyal, liberal, loser” for failing to previously support Trump.
  • In Ohio: Two pro-Mandel super PACsc have launched a nearly $1 million ad buy attacking JD Vance for his previous opposition to Trump.

These primary dynamics have also led Republican Senate candidates to take issue positions that are out of step with general election voters in their states. The Washington Post detailed how candidates in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Arizona have oriented their campaigns around support for Trump’s election fraud, while CNNhighlighted how GOP Senate candidates are opposing the bipartisan infrastructure bill championed by the Republican senators they want to succeed.

Strong Democratic Incumbents Building Formidable Campaigns

The Hill: “Democratic incumbents bolster fundraising advantage in key Senate races.”

As Republican candidates disqualify each other, our strong Democratic incumbents are laying the groundwork for victory.

Senators Hassan, Kelly, Cortez Masto and Warnock are battle-tested vote-getters who have out-performed the top of the ticket or won tough races in challenging national environments. And they are building the campaign infrastructure needed to win — demonstrating “fundraising might” while holding “multimillion-dollar campaign cash advantages.”

In their states they’ve already begun highlighting their record of accomplishments — like the infrastructure bill’s investments in jobs, clean drinking water, wildfire management and commuter rail.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is also making unprecedented early investments, including the earliest and largest investment in field organizing and voter protection programs in the committee’s history. 

The bottom line: While we are taking nothing for granted, one year out Senate Democrats have a clear advantage in races across the map. Flawed Republican recruits — coupled with vicious intra-party fights — are damaging the GOP’s prospects. Senate Democrats are delivering on our promises and laying the groundwork for successful campaigns. And as we prepare to enter the next phase of the campaign, Democrats are strongly positioned to protect and expand our Senate majority.

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