NEW Analysis: “Mitch McConnell’s Senate Majority Is In Danger”

While Strong Democratic Challengers Lead Vulnerable Republican Incumbents And Expand The Map, Trump Is “Threatening To Take Down The GOP’s Senate Majority With Him”

A new analysis from the National Journal confirms that Mitch McConnell’s Senate majority is increasingly at risk in 2020, with vulnerable Republican incumbents losing in recent polls in the key battlegrounds of Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina, and two-term Governor Steve Bullock putting Montana in play. Democratic challengers are also expanding the map of competitive races to states like Iowa, Georgia, and Kansas.

This follows a New York Times report on how “the majority is up for grabs” and the Cook Political Report’s recent analysis that “Democrats appear to have expanded the playing field enough to put Republicans’ majority at risk.” Read more about why the GOP Senate majority is increasingly at risk:

National Journal: Against The Grain: Mitch McConnell’s Senate majority is in danger

Josh Kraushaar
March 8, 2020

Key Points:

• In the three most critical Senate battlegrounds—Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina—Trump trails Biden, according to new public polling. Those same public surveys show Democratic Senate challengers leading the Republican incumbents.

• In Republican-leaning North Carolina, Trump’s job approval was only 45 percent in last week’s NBC-Marist poll (conducted Feb. 23-27)… And most worrisome for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Sen. Thom Tillis trails his newly nominated Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, 48 to 43 percent.

• In what had been the GOP-friendly confines of Arizona, the numbers are equally daunting. Trump’s job approval is also underwater there, with 45 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving in a Democratic Public Policy Polling survey conducted this week… Appointed Sen. Martha McSally was losing to Democrat Mark Kelly, 47 to 42 percent—consistent with other polls showing her trailing her better-funded challenger.

• Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who has taken two difficult votes on Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation and Trump’s impeachment, has seen her popularity fade back home. A new PPP poll shows her trailing Democrat Sara Gideon by 4 points, 47 to 43 percent, with a job-approval rating that slumped to 33 percent (with 57 percent disapproving). A Colby College poll, conducted Feb. 10-13, also found Collins trailing Gideon by a point with well under 50 percent support.

• If these numbers hold, McConnell’s majority is in danger. Assuming Republicans can’t hold Sen. Cory Gardner’s seat in Colorado, where earlier polls showed him trailing former Gov. John Hickenlooper by double digits, Democrats’ path to the majority is clear. If… Democratic Senate challengers win in the four states where they’re currently leading, they’ve won a working 50-50 majority.

• That’s not including races in Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, and (now) Montana where Republicans are favored but Democrats are running competitive campaigns.

• Indeed, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock’s last-minute decision to run against Sen. Steve Daines is a sign of the newfound bullishness of Democrats’ prospects… it will be a competitive race that will force Republicans to spend money in a solidly conservative state.

• Republican candidates have tied themselves so closely to Trump that they’re all dependent on his fortunes. That’s a risky place to be right now.

• Trump’s reelection chances have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, and he’s threatening to take down the GOP’s Senate majority with him.

Read the full column here.