One Year After Tillis “Completely Reverses Course” on Trump’s Emergency Declaration, Vulnerable Incumbent Finds Himself “In the Danger Zone”

After Dismissing Flip-Flop As “Short-Term Distraction,” Tillis Still Struggling to Clean Up His Mess As His Approvals Tank and Elections Forecasters Move Race in Democrats’ Direction

It’s been exactly one year since Senator Thom Tillis “completely reverse[d] course” in a “remarkable,” “Olympic gold” “flip-flop for the ages” and voted for President Trump’s sham emergency declaration less than three weeks after penning a now-infamous op-ed declaring he would vote against it.

Tillis’ total 180 cost North Carolina military projects $80 million, and also cost Tillis his credibility with North Carolina voters, setting the tone for a year that has been defined by embarrassing missteps, underwhelming fundraising, and dwindling support from his own party and voters in key demographics across the Tar Heel State. 

And after a super PAC aligned with Mitch McConnell wasted $3 million in a failed attempt to meddle in the North Carolina Democratic Senate primary, Tillis is limping into the general election “in the danger zone for an incumbent” with poll after poll after poll showing him to be “strikingly unpopular” as a top elections forecaster recently moved the North Carolina Senate race to Toss Up.

“Senator Tillis’ cowardly reversal on the sham emergency declaration has led him to where he is today — scorned by his own party, despised by his constituents, and facing the toughest election of his life,” said DSCC spokesperson Helen Kalla. “Senator Tillis’ craven flip-flop will be the final straw for North Carolina voters who have had enough of their spineless senator and are ready to elect an independent voice who will stand up for them in Washington.”

Here’s a look back at Senator Tillis’ terrible year since he “caved like a $4 suitcase” and voted for Trump’s sham emergency declaration:

The “Flip-Flop for the Ages”: March 2019: Less than a month after publishing his infamous op-ed, Tillis caved and said he would vote with Trump on the sham emergency declaration. His “flip-flop for the ages” earned brutal scrutiny across the state: 

• CBC Editorial: “Sen. Tillis delivers flip-flop for the ages”
• Fayetteville Observer Editorial: “Tillis performs an Olympic gold flip-flop”
• PolitiFact Flip-O-Meter: “Tillis completely reverses course”
• Raleigh News & Observer/Charlotte Observer Editorial: “Thom Tillis deserts himself for Trump”
• WFAE Column: “Tillis caved like a sand castle at high tide”

Double-Digit Approval Drop: April 2019: “Thom Tillis Loses Credibility With North Carolina Republicans” as his approval rating among GOP voters drops by double-digits.

Military Cash Grab: September 2019: Trump announces raid of $80 million from North Carolina military projects because of sham emergency declaration Tillis flip-flopped to uphold:

• Raleigh News & Observer/Charlotte Observer Editorial: “Thom Tillis’ terrible, no good and totally predictable bad day”
• Greensboro News & Record Editorial: “The loss of funds could also hurt Tillis, who is up for re-election next year, and who in March voted to support the dubious emergency declaration that Trump is using to justify his raid on military construction funds”

Yikes: September 2019: Tillis is booed (twice) at GOP rally.

Tillis Doubles Down: September 2019: “Tillis votes again with Trump on border emergency declaration, despite NC military cuts”:

• Fayetteville Observer: Our View: Tillis did not stand up to Trump for state’s military funding

Primary Challenge Emerges: September 2019: Tillis forced to spend heavily to fend off primary threat from the right.

Leading Elections Experts Shift North Carolina in Democrats’ Direction:

• September 2019: Cook Political Report shifts NC-Sen in Democrats’ direction, citing Tillis’ “self-inflicted wounds” and observing that “voters of all ideological stripes simply don’t trust Tillis”
• October 2019: Inside Elections highlights Tillis’ “image problem” while shifting NC-Sen from “Tilts Republican” to “Toss-up”
• October 2019: Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts NC-Sen from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up,” noting that Tillis’ “personal favorability numbers are not good”
• November 2019: POLITICO joins nonpartisan analysts in rating NC-Sen a “toss-up”

“Super Uncomfortable” Exchange Highlights Tillis’ Need to Tie Himself to Trump: November 2019: In a “super uncomfortable” exchange, Trump teases that Tillis “‘didn’t like me at first…’ Then jokes that Tillis calls all the time and wants money for North Carolina”

Tillis Fails to Earn Backing of Former Primary Opponent: December 2019: Tillis sank more than $700,000 into primary ads to defend himself from a challenge on the right; North Carolina conservatives still decline to back him:

• Raleigh News & Observer/Charlotte Observer Editorial: Tillis “flips like a fish on a dock, sometimes within weeks, such as when he expressed “grave concerns” in a February op-ed about Trump’s national emergency declaration to fund a wall on the southern border, then voted to support it less than a month later… That’s why polls have shown that Tillis is trusted by neither moderates nor conservatives.”

The Op-Ed, Redux: December 2019: Tillis’ op-ed ranked as one of the Washington Post’s “favorite op-eds from 2019” for “providing the kind of distilled proof one rarely gets in the real world of how the Republican Party has abandoned principle for expediency and political survival in the Trump era.”

The Cautionary Tale: January 2020: “Be careful; you saw what happened to Tillis”: Tillis becomes a poster child for vulnerable GOP incumbents too spineless to break with the president:

• Charlotte Observer/Raleigh News & Observer Editorial: “[I]t’s still hard to witness the pathetic pandering to the president by North Carolina’s two Republican U.S. senators… Allowing no daylight between his positions and Trump’s is Tillis’ only calculation, his only concern and his only ambition.”

The Ethics Complaint: February 2020: Tillis caught trying to “cash in” on his Senate Judiciary Committee position to make up for “underwhelming” fundraising after spending heavily to defend himself from a primary challenge:

• INDY Week: In Ethics Complaint, NC Dems Say Thom Tillis Tried to Cash in on Impeachment
• Wake Weekly: Political Notebook: Dems accuse Tillis of fundraising ethics violation

The Failed Meddling: February 2020: In Washington Republicans’ most desperate play yet to prop up Tillis, a McConnell-allied super PAC is caught spending millions of dollars in a failed attempt to meddle in North Carolina’s Democratic Senate primary, funnelling money into an outside group attacking Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham:

• The Hill: Top GOP super PAC spent money on NC Democrat
• Cook Political Report: North Carolina Senate Primary Preview
• Open Secrets: ‘Dark money’ trail leads to GOP meddling in North Carolina Democratic primary
• Charlotte Observer: Republican group behind mysterious ads in NC’s Democratic US Senate race
• Associated Press: McConnell-linked group funds ads helping N Carolina Democrat
• POLITICO Pro: McConnell-aligned super PAC-funded group meddling in North Carolina Democratic primary
• CNN: McConnell-aligned Super PAC behind ads supporting liberal candidate in North Carolina Senate race
• Axios: McConnell-tied PAC funds ads to disrupt N.C. Democratic Senate primary
• Roll Call: The ads said a North Carolina candidate was ‘progressive’ and ‘one of us.’ The GOP paid for them.

Yikes, Part II: March 2020: Tillis is booed for a third time by base GOP voters at a pre-primary Trump rally in Charlotte.

The “Danger Zone”: March 2020: Nonpartisan elections forecaster Cook Political Report moves the North Carolina Senate race from Lean Republican to Toss Up, noting how Tillis has “struggled to regain his footing among conservatives in the state after starting to cross Trump last year on emergency funding for the border wall before relenting to side with the president.” 

The “Mostly Useless” Memo: March 2020: Leading elections analyst Stuart Rothenberg skewers a memo put out by the Tillis campaign after the primary, calling it “mostly useless,” containing “no thoughtful analysis” and “uninspired messaging” and telling readers to “ignore” it.

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