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One Year Since Tillis’ Infamous Op-Ed, Vulnerable Incumbent Looking Weaker than Ever

Facing Pressure from Right, Tillis Caved on High-Profile Pledge to Stand Up to White House, Allowing $80 Million Raid on North Carolina Military Projects

Tillis Sank Nearly $1 Million Into Primary & Now Relying on McConnell Allies Meddling in Dem Contest to Help Flailing Campaign: Outraised by Cunningham & Sinking Approval Rating

One year ago today, Senator Thom Tillis published his high-profile Washington Post op-ed laying out his “grave concerns” with President Trump’s sham emergency declaration, and stating flatly that he “would vote against” a military cash grab that he “cannot justify.” Less than three weeks later, he “completely reverse[d] course” in a “remarkable,” “Olympic gold” “flip-flop for the ages.”

Tillis’ about-face cost North Carolina military projects $80 million, and also cost Tillis his credibility with North Carolina voters, setting the tone for a year that has been defined by embarrassing missteps, underwhelming fundraising, and dwindling support in the critical North Carolina Senate race.

Now, in the clearest sign yet that Washington Republicans are panicking over Tillis’ weakness, a McConnell-allied super PAC has admitted to spending $3 million to meddle in North Carolina’s Democratic Senate primary, funnelling money into a mysterious outside group running ads against decorated Army veteran and Democratic frontrunner Cal Cunningham — who just announced that he outraised Tillis by a staggering 2:1 margin in the pre-primary reporting period.

“In the year since Senator Tillis’ infamous op-ed, he’s abandoned all credibility and become nothing more than a case study for the GOP’s total submission to the president,” said DSCC spokesperson Helen Kalla. “North Carolinians across the state see Tillis for what he is — a spineless, self-serving politician who’s loyal only to his Washington party leaders — and will send him into an early retirement in November.”

Take a look at Senator Tillis’ terrible year since the op-ed he probably wishes he’d never written:

The Op-Ed: February 2019: Tillis publishes op-ed stating clearly, “I would vote against the emergency… It’s never a tough vote for me when I’m standing on principle.”

The “Flip-Flop for the Ages”: March 2019: Weeks later, Tillis caved and said he would vote with Trump on the sham emergency declaration. His “flip-flop for the ages” earned brutal scrutiny across the state: 

Double-Digit Approval Drop: April 2019: “Thom Tillis Loses Credibility With North Carolina Republicans” as his approval rating among GOP voters drops by double-digits.

Military Cash Grab: September 2019: Trump announces raid of $80 million from North Carolina military installations because of sham emergency declaration Tillis flip-flopped to uphold:

Yikes: September 2019: Tillis is booed (twice) at GOP rally.

Tillis Doubles Down: September 2019: “Tillis votes again with Trump on border emergency declaration, despite NC military cuts”:

Primary Challenge Emerges: September 2019: Tillis forced to spend heavily to fend off primary threat from the right.

Leading Elections Experts Shift North Carolina in Democrats’ Direction:

  • September 2019: Cook Political Report shifts NC-Sen in Democrats’ direction, citing Tillis’ “self-inflicted wounds” and observing that “voters of all ideological stripes simply don’t trust Tillis”
  • October 2019: Inside Elections highlights Tillis’ “image problem” while shifting NC-Sen from “Tilts Republican” to “Toss-up”
  • October 2019: Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts NC-Sen from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up,” noting that Tillis’ “personal favorability numbers are not good”
  • November 2019: POLITICO joins nonpartisan analysts in rating NC-Sen a “toss-up”

“Super Uncomfortable” Exchange Highlights Tillis’ Need to Tie Himself to Trump: November 2019: In a “super uncomfortable” exchange, Trump teases that Tillis “‘didn’t like me at first…’ Then jokes that Tillis calls all the time and wants money for North Carolina”

Tillis Fails to Earn Backing of Former Primary Opponent: December 2019: Tillis sank more than $700,000 into primary ads to defend himself from a challenge on the right; North Carolina conservatives still decline to back him:

The Op-Ed, Redux: December 2019: Tillis’ op-ed ranked one of the Washington Post’s “favorite op-eds from 2019” for “providing the kind of distilled proof one rarely gets in the real world of how the Republican Party has abandoned principle for expediency and political survival in the Trump era.”

The Cautionary Tale: January 2020: “Be careful; you saw what happened to Tillis”: Tillis becomes a poster child for vulnerable GOP incumbents too spineless to break with the president:

  • Charlotte Observer/Raleigh News & Observer Editorial: “[I]t’s still hard to witness the pathetic pandering to the president by North Carolina’s two Republican U.S. senators… Allowing no daylight between his positions and Trump’s is Tillis’ only calculation, his only concern and his only ambition.”

The Ethics Complaint: February 2020: Tillis caught trying to “cash in” on his Senate Judiciary Committee position to make up for “underwhelming” fundraising after spending heavily to defend himself from a primary challenge:

  • INDY Week: In Ethics Complaint, NC Dems Say Thom Tillis Tried to Cash in on Impeachment
  • Wake Weekly: Political Notebook: Dems accuse Tillis of fundraising ethics violation

The Meddling: February 2020: In Washington Republicans’ most desperate play yet to prop up Tillis, a McConnell-allied super PAC is caught spending millions of dollars to meddle in North Carolina’s Democratic Senate primary, funnelling money into an outside group attacking Democratic frontrunner Cal Cunningham:

  • The Hill: Top GOP super PAC spent money on NC Democrat
  • Cook Political Report: North Carolina Senate Primary Preview
  • Open Secrets: ‘Dark money’ trail leads to GOP meddling in North Carolina Democratic primary
  • Charlotte Observer: Republican group behind mysterious ads in NC’s Democratic US Senate race
  • Associated Press: McConnell-linked group funds ads helping N Carolina Democrat
  • POLITICO Pro: McConnell-aligned super PAC-funded group meddling in North Carolina Democratic primary
  • CNN: McConnell-aligned Super PAC behind ads supporting liberal candidate in North Carolina Senate race
  • Axios: McConnell-tied PAC funds ads to disrupt N.C. Democratic Senate primary
  • Roll Call: The ads said a North Carolina candidate was ‘progressive’ and ‘one of us.’ The GOP paid for them.

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