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DSCC FRIDAY TAKEAWAYS “KANSAS SENATE RACE HEADACHE” EDITION: “BRUISING,” “BITTER PRIMARY FIGHT” TAKES SHAPE BETWEEN “HO-HUM” CANDIDATES

The National Journal this week added Kansas to their list of Senate races most likely to flip in 2020 as Republicans’ Sunflower State primary headache continues to grow. The developments are exacerbating fears of an ugly, expensive nominating contest that will leave the eventual Republican significantly weakened, and put a strain on resources needed to prop up vulnerable GOP incumbents across the country.

HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: New reports reveal that a “crowded primary field of at least four — with more who may jump in” is forcing Mitch McConnell and Washington Republicans to “face the prospect of having to put resources into Kansas.” Republicans are increasingly concerned that the “host of ho-hum establishment candidates who have not inspired confidence” in Kansas have also not “raised the amount of money that they need to raise to run a successful campaign.” The underwhelming field and mounting primary problems have already prompted both the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to shift the race in Democrats’ direction.

GET THE LATEST ON WHY KANSAS IS QUICKLY BECOMING A HEADACHE FOR THE GOP:

Wall Street Journal: Two Republicans Vie for Trump Endorsement in Kansas Senate Race

  • Kansas Republicans Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall are vying for an endorsement from President Trump that could prove decisive in the battle for an open Senate seat in Kansas that is critical for control of the U.S. Senate.
  • So far no GOP candidates in the race have cracked $1 million in a single quarter.
  • …Mr. Marshall hasn’t nailed down any commitments yet, either from the White House or from Mr. McConnell, people familiar with the talks said.
  • A person with knowledge of McConnell’s thinking said he was still reviewing candidates in the race.
  • Sens. Pat Roberts and Jerry Moran say they are planning to stay out of what is shaping up to be a bitter primary fight in their state.

Kansas City Star: Can Marshall beat Kobach? Kansas Republicans poised for bitter primary showdown

  • [N]ational Republicans aren’t in a rush to anoint Marshall or any other candidate. None of the three other major contenders have been been able persuade GOP leaders that they can close the gap with former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, the party’s failed 2018 nominee for governor who leads the primary field in the party’s internal polls.
  • “Nobody’s going to rush in,” said a Washington-based Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly.
  • “None of our candidates have raised the amount of money that they need to raise to run a successful campaign. Every single one of them will need to spend the near term hustling like they’ve never hustled before.”
  • In their meeting, Pompeo gave McConnell the green light to find another candidate to back. That won’t necessarily be Marshall.
  • Despite Marshall’s conservative voting record, his primary against Huelskamp made enemies in the movement. The Club For Growth has been open in its disdain for the congressman and has indicated that it might spend against him during the primary.
  • In addition to Marshall, Roberts said that Kansas Senate President Susan Wagle and former Johnson County Commissioner Dave Lindstrom both stand a chance of competing for the GOP nomination, but he warned “the problem is if you have so many candidates obviously the one candidate who would cause controversy, to say the least, would be the recipient (of the nomination). He has a base.”

Associated Press: With Pompeo out, GOP can’t dodge Kansas Senate race headache

  • Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s declaration Tuesday that he won’t run for Senate in Kansas returned some Republicans to worrying that they can’t block a polarizing conservative from winning the GOP nomination and putting the seat in play.
  • Some anti-Kobach Republicans focused quickly on the race’s best-funded candidate so far, GOP Rep. Roger Marshall of western Kansas. But he still faced skepticism about his conservative bona fides and whether he can stop Kobach, particularly absent a one-on-one match.
  • The national party and its allies face the prospect of having to put resources into Kansas, even though Republicans haven’t lost a Senate race there since 1932.
  • …Marshall [hasn’t] yet convinced some Republicans. Shallenburger sees his pro-Trump statements as “pandering” and says his ouster of Huelskamp has him perceived as a moderate, despite a conservative voting record.

Washington Post: Pompeo is out. Now Democrats see an opportunity for Kansas Senate seat.

  • Now Republicans face a bruising primary battle between Kris Kobach, a former secretary of state and ally of President Trump who lost the governor’s race a year ago, and a host of ho-hum establishment candidates who have not inspired confidence in the Republican leadership.
  • Republicans fear that Kobach could again prevail in a crowded primary field of at least four — with more who may jump in — and then lose the general for the Senate seat.
  • An internal NRSC poll published by the Wall Street Journal last year showed Kobach leading a Republican primary field without Pompeo by 43 percent, far ahead of his closest rival, Rep. Roger Marshall, at 24 percent. But the party leadership remains wary.

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