NEW: Cook Political Report Moves NC Senate Race Toward Dems as “Warning Signs Flash for Tillis”

Days after Senator Thom Tillis dropped $2.2 million to fend off an increasing primary threat, Cook Political Report has moved the race in Democrats’ favor — the latest in a series of “warning signs” for the vulnerable incumbent. The political fallout comes as Tillis faces mounting criticism at home for failing to protect $80 million in funding for military construction projects in North Carolina, including a project at Camp Lejeune that if deferred threatens to “result in compromised readiness.”

Cook Political Report: Tillis Moves to Lean Republican

Jennifer E. Duffy 

September 20, 2019

Key Points:

• Democrats have their sights set on Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, who is seeking a second term. But, before Tillis can focus on a Democratic challenger, he must fend off a primary to his right from wealthy businessman Garland Tucker and farmer Sandy Smith.

• The state’s changing political landscape forces Tillis to walk a fine. As a result, he doesn’t seem to please either side. Many Republicans don’t believe that he is conservative enough, while Democrats argue that he is too conservative. It doesn’t help that he has some self-inflicted wounds. 

• The bottom line is that voters of all ideological stripes simply don’t trust Tillis.

• It’s not surprising then that Tillis pulled primary opposition… Tucker has already been on the air, spending $849,000 to introduce himself to voters. Tillis launched his television advertising this week with a spot featuring footage of Trump at a rally in North Carolina calling Tillis a warrior and saying that he should be re-elected. 

• Trump’s endorsement will carry a great deal of weight in the primary, but strategists fear that it might be enough.

The Hill: Warning signs flash for Tillis in North Carolina

Max Greenwood

September 20, 2019

Key Points:

• When he took the stage at one of Trump’s rallies in Fayetteville, N.C., last week, the boos from some in the audience weren’t necessarily how a first-term Republican senator facing a primary challenge would hope to be received.

• The episode is illustrative of what Democrats and some Republicans say is Tillis’s increasingly apparent vulnerability heading into his 2020 reelection bid.

• A Morning Consult survey released in July showed him with the lowest approval rating of any sitting senator — just 33 percent — and multiple polls have him trailing his potential Democratic challengers.

• At the same time, Tillis is facing a primary challenge from retired Raleigh businessman Garland Tucker, and there are signs that he’s already beginning to take the contest seriously. He unveiled a $2.2 million television and radio ad buy on Monday touting his work with Trump. That ad campaign is slated to run through North Carolina’s March 3 primary.

• Tillis’s critics say the ad campaign is a sign of growing concern about his standing among the state’s conservative primary voters. One North Carolina Republican official familiar with the Senate race said that many core GOP voters in the state are “disaffected” by Tillis.

• On Friday, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, moved Tillis’s race from the “likely” Republican column into the “lean” Republican column, noting that he is torn between competing political realities: Many Republicans in the state believe he is not conservative enough, while Democrats see him as too conservative.

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