NEW: “Nonpartisan Analysts Like Democratic Chances” in Senate as Wins in Kentucky & Louisiana Put Vulnerable GOP Incumbents on Notice

GOP Losses “Could Have Major Implications for 2020, When a Slew of Republican Senators Will Be Playing Defense in Swing States Like Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina”

A new analysis from Rolling Stone shows strong Democratic challengers outraising unpopular and deeply flawed Republican incumbents. Meanwhile, Vox lays out how GOP losses in Kentucky and Louisiana “aren’t a good sign” for vulnerable Republican Senators like Thom Tillis, who’s tied himself tightly to President Trump, and Cory Gardner and Susan Collins, who have an even “tougher needle to thread” in Democratic-leaning states where Trump’s approval is deeply underwater.

These are the latest in a series of “red flags all over” for Senate Republicans — including underwhelming fundraising, terrible approvals, and bruising primaries dragging down already-weak incumbents.

More on the warning signs facing vulnerable Senate Republicans:

Rolling Stone: The Battle for the Senate

By Tim Dickinson

November 22, 2019

• …nonpartisan analysts like Democratic chances. “The Senate’s in play,” says Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, which handicaps federal races.

• “We’ve got a good shot at this,” says [DSCC Chair Senator Catherine] Cortez Masto, running through the math for Senate control, with and without a Democratic vice president’s tiebreaking vote. “If we take the White House, we need three seats; if we don’t, we need four. I’m confident we have more than that.”

• [Alabama Senator Doug] Jones has $5 million in the bank, out-raising a scrum of Republican contenders… Jones’ approval rating is positive — 41 percent, versus 36 disapproving — buoyed by his relentless schedule of town halls.

• Former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who ditched his humbling 2020 presidential run in August, tells Rolling Stone he’s approaching this Senate race with “pure, unbridled passion.” Hickenlooper remains broadly popular for guiding Colorado to an economic boom and passing strong gun-safety laws. Gardner, a longtime favorite of the National Rifle Association, has morphed from a Never Trumper into a Trump loyalist — a questionable choice when Trump’s Colorado disapproval rating stands at 56 percent. Even so, Gardner is not pleasing the base — he scores less than 50 percent approval with Republicans — and his decision to back the president’s emergency declaration at the border even prompted the right-leaning Denver Post to revoke its 2014 endorsement: “We see now that was a mistake.”

• In just the first six weeks of his Senate bid, Hickenlooper raised more than $2 million, nearly matching Gardner’s haul for the entire third quarter. An August poll showed Hickenlooper up by 13 points

• McSally has voted with Trump 96 percent of the time. And Trump, whose disapproval is 54 percent in Arizona, offered McSally the mixed blessing of his “Complete and Total Endorsement!” Her approval rate is just 39 percent — and she’s drawn a wealthy far-right primary challenger. That contest could force her into the same straddle that doomed her 2018 bid: trying to appease the Trump base while not alienating swing voters in the Phoenix suburbs.

• Kelly, who is the husband of Gabby Giffords — the former House member who was nearly assassinated in a mass shooting in 2011 — launched his campaign in February, and has out-raised McSally for three straight quarters, most recently by $2.5 million. “It’s stunning how much money he’s raising,” says Duffy. And an October poll put Kelly up by five among Arizona independents.

• Sen. Thom Tillis finds himself in the same fix as Gardner. “He pleases nobody,” says Duffy. “Conservatives aren’t happy with him. Democrats aren’t happy with him.” … “He capitulated to the president,” says Cal Cunningham, front-runner for the Democratic nomination. “When it is a choice between representing our state and taking care of his own political interests, he puts his own political interests first.”

• …Tillis has a primary challenge on his right from millionaire businessman Garland Tucker, who touts himself as a conservative with “backbone.” So Tillis is spending large on TV ads tying himself to Trump — a political gift to Cunningham, a former state senator and decorated military lawyer. Cunningham has matched Tillis in fundraising, and a September poll had him leading the incumbent by two points.

• …Maine is trending blue; it voted for Clinton by three points, and elected a Democratic governor in a romp in 2018. The DSCC’s favored candidate is Sara Gideon, the speaker of Maine’s House, whose record includes forging a coalition with GOP rivals to tackle the opioid crisis. Gideon is out-raising Collins — by $1.1 million in the third quarter. And Collins’ approval numbers are currently underwater, at only 43 percent.

• Theresa Greenfield… is out-raising [Iowa Senator Joni] Ernst, who failed to clear $1 million in her opening quarter. The daughter of a crop-duster, Greenfield lost her husband to a work accident when she was 24 and a young mother. She vows to protect the social safety net, which she calls “bedrock agreements we’ve made, as Americans, to take care of each other.”

Vox: Swing-state senators are hugging close to Trump despite 2019 election losses

By Li Zhou and Ella Nilsen

November 22, 2019

• This fall, Trump campaigned heavily for both Kentucky Gov. Mike Bevin, who was defeated by Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear in early November, and businessman Eddie Rispone, who more recently lost his challenge to Democrat John Bel Edwards. “You got to give me a big win, please, okay?” he recently said in Louisiana.

• Voters didn’t.

• These losses have prompted questions of whether Trump’s endorsement — in states that went for the president by 30 points and 20 points, respectively — has become less effective than it once was. It’s an issue that could have major implications for 2020, when a slew of Republican senators will be playing defense in swing states like Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina, even as Trump campaigns in these same places.

• Ultimately, Bevin’s and Rispone’s defeats, particularly coupled with Democrats’ sweep in Virginia, aren’t good signs for Trump or the Republican Party… What they do show is that while Trump’s endorsement might fire up the Republican base, it can similarly energize Democrats who’ve turned out in opposition.

• States where his support may be less helpful or detrimental include places like Colorado, where Sen. Cory Gardner is up for a tough reelection fight and Trump’s approval rating has continued to slide. Lawmakers in other swing states where Trump will be headed for his own presidential rallies might also have a tougher needle to thread.

• “Trump will be campaigning for himself in states like Maine, North Carolina, Arizona, and Iowa. It will be interesting to see how much the Republican senators in those states embrace Trump and campaign with him,” says Kondik.

• Tillis, a Republican in one of the most vulnerable Senate seats, said he still found Trump’s endorsement important going into his upcoming 2020 race. The first-term senator experienced major fallout when he broke with the president earlier this year on his declaration of a national emergency to build his border wall, a move that quickly prompted threats of a primary challenge. Tillis later reversed course.

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