Close

NEW POLLING: “Republican Incumbents Have Seen Their Popularity Decline, and They Must Contend with Trump’s Lack of Popularity”

Morning Consult: The latest findings “underscore just how much voters have soured on their GOP senators”

Collins continues to lose support in Maine – she showed the biggest decline of anyone in the Senate as her disapproval rating spiked, views on her job performance dimmed significantly, her net approval is underwater for the first time

New Morning Consult polling shows that vulnerable Republican senators in key states “have seen their popularity fall significantly since President Donald Trump entered office” and are being dragged down by an unpopular president going into 2020.

Senator Susan Collins continues to lose support in Maine: her disapproval rating spiked, views on her job performance have dimmed significantly, and her net approval is underwater in the polling for the first time after seeing a “net slide of 16 percentage points from earlier in the year.” Collins’ poll numbers showed the biggest decline of anyone in the Senate.

Senators Thom Tillis and Cory Gardner have seen their net approval ratings drop by double digits since Trump took office – making clear “just how much voters have soured on their GOP senators.” Trump is also poised to be a drag on Senator Joni Ernst in Iowa, where he’s nearly 20 points underwater. Meanwhile, in Michigan, Senator Gary Peters has a whopping “23-point advantage over Trump’s net approval.”

This new polling data follows an analysis from FiveThirtyEight that shows Democrats “winning the fundraising race in the Senate” – an “especially troubling” trend for vulnerable (and increasingly unpopular) Senate Republicans up for re-election next year.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Morning Consult: How Trump Is Weighing on 2020’s Most Vulnerable Senators

Republican incumbents have seen their popularity decline, and they must contend with Trump’s lack of popularity

By Eli Yokley

July 17, 2019

Key Points:

  • Republicans face a tough map as they work to maintain their Senate majority next year, with their most vulnerable members facing two main problems: Some have seen their popularity fall significantly since President Donald Trump entered office, and for those who haven’t, negative views of his job performance could be a drag on their own paths to re-election.
  • Democratic strategist Martha McKenna said Republican incumbents are “of the Senate and of Trump’s Republican Senate” as they prepare to face voters on the same ballot with him next fall.
  • The latest findings also underscore just how much voters have soured on their GOP senators.
  • Collins’ net approval — the share of voters who approve of her job performance minus the share who disapprove — has fallen by 44 percentage points since the first quarter of 2017, when Trump took office. Forty-five percent of Mainers approve of Collins and 48 percent disapprove in the latest rankings, down 16 net points since quarter one of this year, as her campaign gears up in earnest to face a Democratic challenge from state House Speaker Sara Gideon.
  • In Colorado, the share of voters who approve and disapprove of Gardner is even, at 37 percent — a 19-point net drop since the first quarter of 2017. And in North Carolina, Tillis is 2 points underwater, down 3 points since the first quarter of 2019 and 11 points since Trump took office.
  • Republicans have at times struggled to navigate the dynamics wrought by Trump’s presidency. The commander in chief is beloved by the party’s base but is broadly unpopular with the general electorate.
  • Candidates have not yet been set in most of the states where Republicans are facing tough races next year, but those who are most vulnerable are already having their independent credentials questioned.
  • Collins has been hit for her support of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s controversial nomination. Tillis has faced attacks for first opposing Trump’s national emergency to fund construction of a U.S.-Mexico border wall before ultimately voting to support it. Gardner, meanwhile, is facing a home-state electorate that has broadly moved away from the Republican Party in recent cycles.

Read the full report here.

###

Next Post

Lost Credibility, Terrible Press, and a Skipped Hearing: What to Know About The Rough First Months of Thom Tillis’ Re-election Campaign

Stay Connected


ICYMI: For Democrats, abortion pill case opens new front in election-year battle [The Washington Post]

8 hrs Ago

ago on Twitter

Close

Defend Our Democratic
Senate Majority


Sign up to receive text updates. By participating, you consent to receive recurring committee & fundraising messages from the DSCC, including automated text messages. Msg & Data rates may apply. Privacy Policy & ToS.

or