COOK POLITICAL REPORT: “Red States Within Reach” as Senate Dems’ “Strong Recruits” Leave Them “Better Positioned to Win the Majority Than Republicans”

Cook Political Report: “Democrats’ strong recruits in Ohio, Alaska and Kansas put red states within reach, while Republicans fumbled with sub-par nominees in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas”

With just four days until Election Day and a “dismal national political environment for Republicans,” election analysts at the Cook Political Report now rate Democrats as the “slight favorites” to re-take the Senate majority thanks to “strong recruits” who have “put red states within reach.”

Democrats’ all-star slate of candidates – coupled with Senate Republicans’ repeated, embarrassing recruitment failures and “sub-par nominees in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas” – has created an environment where “Democrats are better positioned to win the majority than Republicans are to keep it.”

In a cycle where Democrats once faced “‘herculean’ odds to take back the Senate,” Cook now sees “multiple scenarios [for Democrats] to gain the four seats they need to flip the chamber” as “races appear to be moving away from the GOP” – putting Democrats on track to “pick up between two and six seats.”

See for yourself: 

Cook Political Report: Closing Senate Analysis: The Seven States That Will Decide the Majority

• […] given the dismal national political environment for Republicans — and the fact that Democrats have multiple scenarios to gain the four seats they need to flip the chamber (of the seven seats sitting in Toss Up, six are held by Republicans) — we see Democrats as the slight favorites.
• We are keeping seven races in our Toss Up category as of today because, frankly, we do not know how they will break in the closing days of the election. And after talking to scores of plugged-in strategists on both sides of the aisle who are tracking the races exhaustively, they don’t either. In our writeups for each state below, however, we outline where we see these races trending, which informs our belief that Democrats are better positioned to win the majority than Republicans are to keep it.
• Some polls have tightened in the final weeks as voters come back into their partisan camps, while other races appear to be moving away from the GOP. This may not be a linear election, with all of the Toss Ups breaking one way, but instead one in which candidate quality bucks historical statewide trends or the overall political environment.
• We are keeping our latest range unchanged — we expect Democrats to pick up between two and six seats. Two additional ratings are also shifting in Democrats’ direction: Nebraska from Likely to Lean Republican and Florida from Solid to Likely Republican.
• How did we get here, in a cycle where Democrats once faced “herculean” odds to take back the Senate? Looking back, the Iran War and its subsequent dramatic rise in gas and diesel prices was a key turning point. But President Donald Trump’s approval ratings had started to recede even before that, including in deep red states. Democrats’ strong recruits in Ohio, Alaska and Kansas put red states within reach, while Republicans fumbled with sub-par nominees in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas. 
• Ultimately, Democrats are poised to capitalize on Trump’s tumbling image and discouraged base. The true test may be whether even the best GOP candidates of the cycle — in Maine and Iowa — can survive a looming blue wave.
• Here is our best take on where these races stand as we head into Election Day, from most to least likely to go Democrats’ way:
• Democrats’ path to the majority
• Despite being burned in the past by polls that underestimated Sen. Susan Collins, Democrats are cautiously optimistic that their private polling and public data is right this time, given how steadily Collins’ approval has declined. […] the cost of living in Maine, Trump’s deep disapproval in the state, and lingering anger over Collins’ vote for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh may cause even onetime Collins voters, particularly older women, to pull the lever for Jackson nonetheless to send a message to Trump. Rating: Toss Up
• Republicans sound pessimistic about [the Alaska Senate] race, given Sullivan’s poor approval ratings […]. If this race goes to ranked choice voting, as we expect, the outcome won’t be known for weeks. The bigger question is whether or not the Senate majority hinges on Alaska. We’d probably put a pinkie on the scale for Peltola right now, but not enough to shift the prediction in Democrats’ favor. Rating: Toss Up
• Surprisingly, Texas may be the next state to flip after North Carolina and Maine. Democrat James Talarico has consistently led the baggage-laden Republican Ken Paxton. The Texas attorney general has also run a subpar campaign, with Elon Musk and the Senate Leadership Fund having to bail him out to the tune of $180 million, which doesn’t go as far as the hard dollars Talarico impressively raised. Latinos and even disgruntled Republicans are trending toward Talarico by enough to help him pull off the upset. […] If Abbott barely wins, though, Texas could finally turn blue. We’d rather be Talarico in this final stretch. Rating: Toss Up
• After Texas, Ohio is the next most vulnerable GOP-held seat on our list. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted has not run a particularly impressive race, and he’s also been hurt by Vivek Ramaswamy’s spiraling gubernatorial campaign, whose chances we recently downgraded after his controversial ad. Polling from both parties still shows the race as a coin flip […] but we’d still give Brown a very slight edge here. Rating: Toss Up
• Sen. Roger Marshall has run one of the worst campaigns this cycle, with national Republicans rushing in at the end to try to bail him out. Enter Rev. Adam Hamilton, who many Republicans believe is one of Democrats’ best candidates this cycle. Add in a worsening environment for the GOP and a hard-hit agriculture industry, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see a Democratic upset here on election night — even in a state that voted for Trump by 16 points and hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Marshall would have no one but himself to blame, and Hamilton has the momentum at the end. Rating: Toss Up
• […] Democrats again feel confident in holding the New Hampshire open seat, and polls show Rep. Chris Pappas up mid-to-high single digits over former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu. Some Republicans still hold out hope that the Sununu name and the state’s history of ticket splitting could produce an upset that would offset other potential losses, but that dream has faded in the last month. Rating: Lean Democrat
• […] the fundamentals in Minnesota simply create too tough an environment for a GOP candidate. We don’t expect this to be a double-digit race (as a recent New York Times/Siena poll showed), but Democrats are right to feel comfortable here. Rating: Lean Democrat
• And ultimately, Georgia never ended up being the race Republicans had hoped to run against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff after outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp passed on a bid. The GOP nominee, Rep. Mike Collins, has been one of the most underwhelming candidates of the cycle, never even airing a general election ad. The only question that remains is whether Ossoff’s margin will be large enough to lift former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms to victory. Rating: Likely Democrat
• This is where to watch to see if the Democratic wave is a Category 3 storm or if it intensifies to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. If it does, Democrats could pile up wins in places they have no business being competitive.
• Mississippi has gotten a lot of attention and ink in the past few weeks, and Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith even doubled down recently on her much-mocked comments that voters should simply choose a cheaper protein than beef. Democrat Scott Colom has run an admirable race, and Democrats are hoping that Black turnout surges enough to keep the race close and set the stage for more competitive races in the Deep South in future cycles.