QUICK CLIP: Roger Marshall Facing a “Mathematical Perfect Storm” in Kansas as “Historically Popular” Adam Hamilton Surges in New Poll

CNN’s Harry Enten: “This, to me, is potentially a mathematical perfect storm: a historically unpopular Republican in Kansas in Donald Trump, and a historically popular Democratic Senate candidate in Adam Hamilton. That may be the equation that gets Kansas its first Democratic Senator in 94 years”

Enten: “Kansas has actually been shifting away from the right the last couple of Presidential election cycles […] Kansas, one way to measure it, is less Republican right now than it has been in over a century versus the national average”

After a new New York Times/Siena poll found Democrat Adam Hamilton tied with Republican Roger Marshall, CNN’s Harry Enten broke down the “mathematical perfect storm” bearing down on Senate Republicans in Kansas with just one month until Election Day.

Kansas is “less Republican right now than it has been in over a century” and has been “shifting away from the right the last couple of Presidential election cycles.” Now, Senate Republicans are flooding money into Kansas to bail out Roger Marshall – a weak, toxic incumbent “facing backlash” for his “extreme” and “predatory” record as an OB-GYN that included filing over 700 lawsuits against his own patients – many of whom were uninsured new mothers – who struggled to cover medical bills “as little as $101” – producing 81 arrests. 

See for yourself:

CNN: Could Kansas’s Senate seat really flip Dem? Enten unpacks the race

CNN’s HARRY ENTEN: Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the United States Senate since 1932. That’s 94 years ago […] What is going on is that President Trump is historically unpopular for a Republican President in the great state of Kansas. 

Take a look here. Okay, what are we looking at here? Republican Presidents’ net approval ratings in Kansas. I absolutely buy the idea that this race is close because just take a look at these. Okay. GOP net approvals in Kansas about at this point in a term. Look at this. George W. Bush coming off 9/11 was at about plus 45 points. Even in 2006, he was still in the positive territory at about plus one. 

In his first term, look at this: Donald Trump at plus five points. Look at how much less popular Donald Trump is than he was in term number one. At this point, he’s way down in the basement, 15 points underwater. That’s a 20-point shift away from the President of the United States. That is 16 points less popular than any other Republican President at this point in the term this century […] 

Kansas has actually been shifting away from the right the last couple of Presidential election cycles […] versus the national average, Kansas has actually been moving to the left. It has been shifting away from the right, and in fact, in terms of the state rankings, this is the lowest ranking in terms of Republican-ness of Kansas in over a century. Kansas, one way to measure it, is less Republican right now than it has been in over a century versus the national average […]

CNN’s JOHN BERMAN: So, if Kansas could talk, it would say it’s not just you, President Trump. It’s not just me, the state of Kansas, but it might also be a little bit of him, the Democratic candidate. 

ENTEN: That’s right, Adam Hamilton, who is doing very well in part because Adam Hamilton is popular. Take a look at this. Okay, key Senate races: the highest net favorable rating of any of the candidates that the New York Times tested is Adam Hamilton in Kansas, the Democratic nominee. His net favorable rating is plus 12 points. The average candidate that the Times tested was actually a point underwater […] he’s already more popular than the average candidate. In fact, the most popular candidate in a key Senate race in the entire nation at this point, at least according to the New York Times. 

BERMAN: This is why Senate Republicans are dumping 14 million dollars into this race to try to drive this number down. 

ENTEN: That’s exactly right. This, to me, is potentially a mathematical perfect storm: a historically unpopular Republican in Kansas in Donald Trump, and a historically popular Democratic Senate candidate in Adam Hamilton. That may be the equation that gets Kansas its first Democratic Senator in 94 years. 

See also: DSCC: WHAT THEY’RE SAYING: Democrats’ “Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats” and “Advantage in Candidate Quality” Generate “Momentum” Across the Map; DSCC: ICYMI: Roger Marshall “Sued 700 Patients for Debts; 81 Were Arrested. Now He’s a Senator” [New York Times]; DSCC: ICYMI: GOP Senator Roger Marshall “Facing Backlash” for “Extreme,” “Predatory,”& “Unbelievably Aggressive” Practices; DSCC: “SHAME ON YOU”: Roger Marshall Relentlessly Booed, Heckled at Debate Amid Questions About His Toxic Record, “Predatory” Practices as OB-GYN