Cook Political Report: “Democrats In a Position to Win the Majority” as Impressive Candidates, Strong Fundraising Expand Senate Map

“Democrats Appear to Have Expanded the Playing Field Enough to Put Republicans’ Majority at Risk”

The independent election analysts at Cook Political Report confirm heading into 2020 the Senate is “in play” as Democrats field impressive candidates with compelling stories and strong fundraising that puts “Republicans’ majority at risk.” The report follows other Cook’s earlier reporting that moved races including Maine and North Carolina in Democrats’ direction. 

For months, experts have warned about “red flags all over for Senate Republicans,” including their sinking approval, lagging fundraising, and political baggage — like supporting a toxic lawsuit to eliminate protections for pre-existing conditions coverage.

Read more about why Democrats are “in a position to win the majority” heading into next year’s election:

Cook Political Report: The Majority is in Play

By Jennifer E. Duffy

December 20, 2019

Key Points:

• Democrats appear to have expanded the playing field enough to put Republicans’ majority at risk.

• Republicans have three seats in Toss Up: U.S. Sens. Martha McSally in Arizona, Cory Gardner in Colorado, and Susan Collins in Maine.

• Democrats say that voters understand that Hickenlooper is quirky, while they believe that Gardner isn’t the Senator they elected in 2014. To paraphrase one strategist, the Happy Warrior has become a car salesman.

• In Arizona, while presumptive Democratic nominee and former astronaut Mark Kelly devotes nearly all his time to the Senate race (he has been an outstanding fundraiser), McSally is focused on her duties in the Senate. This has got to be frustrating given how little the Senate is able to accomplish, and it will provide Democrats with plenty of fodder with which to challenge McSally.

• The secret to Democrats’ ability to win the majority is in their ability to expand the playing field. The first race on that list is in North Carolina where GOP U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis is seeking a second term. With competitive races for President, Governor and Senate, as well as several House races, North Carolina will resemble a very expensive ground zero this cycle. Tillis caught a couple of breaks over the past couple of weeks… but that doesn’t mean the general election won’t be very competitive. The DSCC has endorsed Cal Cunningham, a lawyer and Major in the Army Reserve. Cunningham is an attractive candidate, who won’t be that easy to label an AOC progressive.

• It appears that Democrats have put Iowa in play where GOP U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst is seeking a second term and is likely to face DSCC-endorsed businesswoman Theresa Greenfield. Democrats argue that Ernst campaigned as part of the solution to the problems facing Washington, only to become part of the problem.

• Democrats also believe that they can put both seats in Georgia in play. They argue that the state is becoming less Republican, and Democrats have registered tens of thousands of new voters. 

• Finally, strategists believe that they can put the open seat in Kansas in play. They are enthusiastic about Barbara Bollier, a state Senator and retired physician who switched parties a year ago because Republicans had moved too far to the right. Given the current GOP primary field, it’s easy to understand Democrats’ optimism… 

• It appears that there will be at least five GOP-held seats in play, with a chance that Democrats could add one or two more. This puts Democrats in a position to win the majority.

Read the full analysis here.

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