ICYMI: Left-behind polling memo shows abortion hurting outlook for GOP [Roll Call]

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Roll Call: Left-behind polling memo shows abortion hurting outlook for GOP

By Nathan L. Gonzales

May 24, 2023

• In the latest chapter of what seems to be a long-running series about Roll Call getting ahold of things people shouldn’t leave behind, a binder from a conference an outside group held for top GOP Senate staffers at a West Virginia resort had some cautionary signs about the 2024 climate.

• The generic ballot has shifted toward Democrats, with Republicans losing ground among independents on the abortion issue, according to a new polling memo from a GOP firm that fell into Democratic hands.

• “There has been a 6 point swing in the last year on the Generic Senate ballot from R+3 to D+3. This movement is [led] overwhelmingly by Independent and NEW voters that identify abortion as one of their top issues,” according to a “National Issue Study” by co/efficient, which was in the news recently as one of the pollsters for Kentucky Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron. 

• Republicans have been reticent to publicly admit the Dobbs decision that overturned the Roe v. Wade precedent and subsequent lawsuits and state laws to restrict access to legal abortion hampered their midterm gains and could hurt them in the upcoming 2024 cycle. 

• The poll numbers were part of a 34-slide presentation and part of a binder for a conference by Senate Working Group, a nonprofit that sponsors training for Senate staff. The April 28-29 program was attended by Senate Republican chiefs of staff and staff directors. 

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