ICYMI: Senate Republicans Face “Brutal Intraparty Battles” and “Messy Primaries That Could Upend Their Chances”

A wave of new reports highlight that across the Senate battlegrounds, “Republicans are involved in messy primaries” and “brutal intraparty battles despite leaders’ attempts to winnow the fields” “that could upend their chances at taking control.” The reports highlight that “the NRSC chair has got work to do” since the current effort “has not yet fallen the way Republicans would like.” 

The reports also note that Senate Republican candidates “will be running against highly experienced Democratic incumbents.” “We have battle-hardened candidates and incumbents,” DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters said.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Washington Post: Messy primaries could upend Senate races
By Leigh Ann Caldwell and Theodoric Meyer 
December 18, 2023

• Republicans are involved in messy primaries that could upend their chances at taking control. Republicans will be running against highly experienced Democratic incumbents in six of the races.
  
  
• It’s a high-stakes effort that has not yet fallen the way Republicans would like. Democrats see the primary process as a huge vulnerability for the GOP. 

• “Oftentimes in those primaries, the most right-wing, most extreme candidate wins the Republican primary,” Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in an interview last week. “They also tend to be damaged, and their flaws are quite apparent to voters once they get through a contentious primary.”

• Republicans are facing potential complicated primaries in Michigan, Ohio, Montana, Nevada and Wisconsin… “Michigan has the chance to be the messiest,” said Taylor, the Senate race handicapper.
  
  
• Democratic Sen. Jon Tester knows how to win in Montana. Republicans’ preferred candidate, Tim Sheehy…is already running, but hard-right Rep. Matt Rosendale is threatening to jump in… [and] he is liked by the base. 

• [In Michigan,] the primary for Republicans is threatening to fracture the vote. National Republicans are backing former representative Mike Rogers. But at least three other candidates are complicating his efforts.
  
  
• [In Ohio,] three candidates are vying for the Republican nomination. …“If a candidate emerges bloody from a primary, that’s a problem,” Taylor said. 

• [In Nevada,] Army veteran Sam Brown is the clear GOP favorite. But he could face a challenge from …Jim Marchant or Jeffrey Gunter.
  
  
• [In Wisconsin,] preferred Republican candidates, including Rep. Mike Gallagher, have passed on the race against Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
  
  
• [In Arizona,] right-wing candidate Kari Lake, who lost the gubernatorial race last cycle [has announced a run]. Lake struggles to attract general election voters. 

• “We have battle-hardened candidates and incumbents,” Peters said, adding that abortion will continue to play a major role.

POLITICO: Senate GOP enters critical stretch for fending off bad candidates
By Ally Mutnick and Burgess Everett 
December 17, 2023

• Republicans are still facing internecine battles in states like Arizona, Ohio and Montana that could upend their best-laid plans.
  
  
• Montana is the biggest unknown. Republicans fear GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in 2018, could scramble their efforts… Rosendale is emboldened by the NRSC’s opposition, seething in a three-minute video that “…they’re spending their time trying to keep me out of this race.”
  
  
• In other top-target states, the Senate GOP expects some brutal intraparty battles despite leaders’ attempts to winnow the fields. 

• Ohio and Michigan are descending into bloodbaths as multiple self-funders vie for the nomination in each state. A similar dynamic could play out in Wisconsin.

• “Usually what happens is the more extreme candidate wins. And a lot of damage is done to whoever emerges,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who runs the party’s campaign arm. “That’s going to be good for Sherrod Brown.”
  
  
• The NRSC chair has got work to do elsewhere, too. In Michigan, Sandy Pensler, a wealthy businessperson, jumped into a chaotic GOP primary…a race that already includes former Detroit Police Chief James Craig and former Reps. Peter Meijer and Mike Rogers. 
  
  
• Adding to the concern on the GOP side: Democrats are coalescing around Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.). The NRSC endorsed Rogers and urged Meijer not to run for Senate, creating a public spat with the former member. 

Washington Examiner: Republicans face difficult path to victory in Michigan Senate race
By Emily Jacobs 
December 18, 2023

• Republicans face an uphill battle to clinch retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) seat next year. [Elissa] Slotkin is viewed as the clear front-runner in both the primary and general election, while the GOP is far from coalescing around a candidate.

• A Michigan GOP consultant, told the Washington Examiner in an interview … “you have three or four Republicans fighting it out like kids at the little kids table until August, when they will be broke because they will have spent all their money winning the primary.”
  
  
• The Republican primary is a crowded one, with former Reps. Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer, former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, and businessman Sandy Pensler, who came in second in the state’s 2018 GOP Senate primary, in the race.

• Rogers…enjoys the support of the NRSC, though his ability to win the primary is no sure thing.

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