NEW Analysis: Vulnerable GOP Senators “Lagging” on Fundraising, “Trouble… Extends to States Where They’re Supposed To Be On Firmer Ground”

While Republicans in key races struggle to keep up, “Democrats also have a small-dollar cash advantage”

Another analysis lays out Republicans’ growing money problems in key Senate races where strong Democratic challengers are continuing to build momentum. The Associated Press reports today that vulnerable Senate Republicans’ “lagging numbers suggest that much of the enthusiasm among the GOP… doesn’t necessarily translate” to their races and that the “trouble for Republicans extends to states where they’re supposed to be on firmer ground.” Theresa Greenfield outraised incumbent Senator Joni Ernst in Iowa, and Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina is already spending $1 million more than he raised last quarter on primary ads to defend his seat against a self-funding conservative challenger.

There are “red flags all over” in the latest polling and fundraising reports as Democratic challengers “outpace vulnerable GOP senators in Q3 fundraising” and the “most vulnerable Republican senators are not improving their standing in their home states” — and instead saw their approval ratings fall again.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Associated Press: While Trump rakes in cash, some Senate Republicans lagging

By Brian Slodysko

October 24, 2019

Key Points:

• President Donald Trump is raising record amounts of cash for his 2020 reelection. But that fundraising might isn’t spilling over to the most vulnerable Republicans fighting to hold onto their seats in a narrowly divided Senate.

• During the third quarter, former astronaut Mark Kelly took in $2.5 million more than Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona. In Maine, state House Speaker Sara Gideon bested longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins by over $1 million. And in Colorado, Cory Gardner, who led Senate Republicans’ campaign arm in 2018, barely outraised former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who had been in the race just five weeks before the quarter ended.

• The trouble for Republicans extends to states where they’re supposed to be on firmer ground.

• Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst didn’t crack $1 million and was outraised by the leading Democrat. North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis narrowly outraised Democrat Cal Cunningham but is also facing a primary challenge from the right that has forced him to spend millions in early TV and radio ads.

• The lagging numbers suggest that much of the enthusiasm among the GOP base is focused on Trump and doesn’t necessarily translate to Republicans running for other offices. Democrats, meanwhile, are paying close attention to races across the board, including the House, Senate and presidency, fueling them with small-dollar donations that Republicans have struggled to counter.

• … the dynamic could complicate the GOP’s effort to maintain their 53-47 grip on the Senate.

• This should serve as a “real wakeup call,” said Scott Reed, a senior political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a group that has long been allied with Senate Republicans.

• Instead of focusing on their own records, Republicans seeking reelection have often been barraged with uncomfortable questions about Trump’s conduct.

• “Republicans are going to struggle with fundraising and messaging if the only thing they can talk about is President Trump,” said Jonathan Kott, who was a senior adviser to Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, during his successful 2018 reelection bid. “What we found is no matter how popular the president is, you have to stand up to him when it’s good for your state. Democratic senators are finding a way to do that. Republican senators aren’t.”

• Democrats also have a small-dollar cash advantage.

• Despite an organized push, Republicans have yet to develop an online fundraising behemoth rivaling ActBlue, the Democrats’ donation platform, which enables donors across the country to direct a contribution of $1, $5 or any amount up to $2,800 with a few taps on a smartphone.

Read the full story here.

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