Once Confident Senate Republicans Forced on Defense in November Election [USA Today]

Democrats Expand Senate Map as Republicans Forced to Defend More Seats

A new USA Today report this week details how Republicans are increasingly on defense as Democrats expand battleground opportunities across the country with impressive challengers, record-breaking grassroots fundraising, and a clear focus on defending health care protections and lowering costs for hardworking families.

Republicans are struggling and planning to spend essentially no money going on offense – nearly 100% of the fall television ad reservations from the NRSC and the McConnell-aligned Super PAC and dark money group are being spent to protect vulnerable GOP incumbents. 

Independent analysts concede that Republicans face “a hard road” and GOP operatives have grown more and more concerned about Democrats’ rising chances in the fight to flip the Senate. Increasingly common reports spotlight the growing fear among Republicans that a “very, very tough environment” has increasingly put their Senate majority at risk in November with one high-ranking Republican Senate aide even recently admitting: “I am very glad my boss isn’t on the ballot this cycle.” 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

USA Today: Pandemic, George Floyd death has once-confident Senate Republicans on defense in November election

By Ledyard King and Maureen Groppe

Key Points:

• Republicans face a real battle in November, political analysts say. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who’s up for reelection himself this fall, calls it “a challenging environment.”

• GOP incumbents in states that looked like toss-ups, including Colorado and Arizona, are trending blue. And GOP incumbents in states that seemed favorable for reelection, such as Montana, North Carolina and Maine, look increasingly in peril. Even red seats in Iowa, Georgia and Kansas are potentially in play.

• Since last summer, GOP incumbents drew top-tier Democrats in two key races. Both former Gov. John Hickenlooper in Colorado and Gov. Steve Bullock in Montana decided to run for the Senate after scrapping their unsuccessful presidential bids. Both are household names in the states where they’re running.

• Hickenlooper makes Republican incumbent Cory Gardner’s already uphill chances that much more difficult. A May 6 poll shows the former governor up by 18 points.

• Bullock’s entry turned a race that was considered a likely re-election bid into a toss-up. A Western States poll conducted last month has Bullock up by 7 points, just within the margin of error.

• North Carolina Republican incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis also wasn’t helped when fellow Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., gave up his chairmanship of the Senate Intelligence Committee after the FBI opened an investigation into stock sales Burr made ahead of the coronavirus market crash.

• In the first three months of the year, Democratic challengers significantly outraised the incumbent in the four states – Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina – that the party probably needs to sweep in order to take control of the Senate. Democrats also collected more funds in six other, less-competitive races.

• “It shows us they have enthusiasm and money on their side,” Taylor said of Democrats.

• In Arizona, for example, two recent polls showed Sen. Martha McSally trailing Democrat Mark Kelly badly in Maricopa County. That Republican stronghold includes substantial numbers of both suburban and senior voters in the greater Phoenix area.

• Republicans like Gardner of Colorado and Tillis of North Carolina who may have tried to distance themselves from Trump early on are back in the fold. Breaking with Trump is unlikely to win over independent voters but will cost them with the GOP base.

• Democrats are sticking with the top issue that helped them win control of the House in 2018: health care. They’re betting that the pandemic only heightens voters’ interest in the issue.

• Kondik at the University of Virginia’s Center on Politics said Democrats reclaimed the momentum on health care in 2018. “And,” he said, “I don’t think they’ve really given it back.”

Read the full report here.

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