RATINGS CHANGE: Cook Political Moves Montana to “Toss Up” — Fifth GOP-Held Seat In “Most Competitive” Category

Montana “Skyrocketed to Competitive Status” When Bullock Launched His Campaign, Now “Glaringly Competitive Race”

The Cook Political Report moved the Montana Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” — the fifth Republican-held seat to move into the nonpartisan election analyst’s “most competitive” category as Democrats continue to shift and expand the map and put more states in play.

When Governor Steve Bullock entered the race in March, major nonpartisan analysts agreed Montana “skyrocketed to competitive status.” The popular two-term governor and former attorney general’s approval rating has risen “exponentially” as he has led Montana through the coronavirus pandemic. Bullock outraised vulnerable incumbent Senator Steve Daines in Q1 “by about $2.1 million in the first fundraising quarter, despite being in the race for less than a month before the deadline” and then again by a  2:1 margin in the pre-primary fundraising period. 

Cook Political’s newest ratings change is just the latest example of the Senate map shifting in Democrats’ direction. The five seats Cook rates as “Toss Up” are all Republican-held: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Montana and North Carolina. Several other GOP-held seats have also shifted in Democrats’ favor, including Alaska, Georgia, Georgia-Special, Iowa and South Carolina. GOP operatives have grown more and more concerned about losing the Senate and outside groups are burning resources to defend vulnerable incumbents. A growing number of reports spotlights just how nervous Republicans are — with one senior GOP aide even admitting, “I am very glad my boss isn’t on the ballot this cycle.”  

Read more about why Daines is increasingly vulnerable in November:

Cook Political Report: Montana Senate Moves to Toss Up

By Jessica Taylor

June 18, 2020

Key Points: 

• Montana skyrocketed to competitive status earlier this year when Democrats finally convinced term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock to jump into the race and challenge first-term GOP Sen. Steve Daines.

• The past few months have also highlighted the unique nature of this race, as the only contest with a sitting governor seeking a Senate seat. And like other governors who have ably handled the pandemic — especially in comparison to the Trump administration’s bungling — Bullock has seen his approval ratings rise exponentially too, up to 75 percent in one poll. Montana has had one of the lowest per capita infection rates (49th out of 50), with only 20 deaths as of June 17, and Bullock has gotten plaudits for closing the state early as it began to reopen last month. 

• Even some Republicans privately admit this is likely to be a margin of error race to the finish line.

• Unlike other states with candidates newer to the statewide ballot, Bullock is already well-defined in voters’ minds, and it may be harder to change voters’ opinions of him. Bullock’s fundraising has been impressive since he got in, too — he outraised Daines by about $2.1 million in the first fundraising quarter, despite being in the race for less than a month before the deadline. In the six week pre-primary filing period too ahead of the June 2 primary, Bullock again outpaced the incumbent by a nearly two-to-one margin and pulled within $1.6 million of Daines’s cash of hand advantage.

• Daines’s ads have leaned heavily into blaming China for the pandemic, echoing talking points from the White House. However, his own background — and continued revelations about Trump and China — may negate the efficacy of those attacks. Before entering politics, Daines worked for Procter & Gamble, eventually moving overseas to work for them in Hong Kong & China.

• It’s been clear for a while that this race is shaping up to be a unique battle between two well-liked Montanans (who both just happen to be named Steve), making it the most glaringly competitive race we’ve had in the Lean Republican column for the past few months. Several indicators now merit a more competitive rating, and therefore we are moving this race to Toss Up. 

Read the full analysis here.

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