2 New Stories: “The Issue of Candidate Quality is Rearing Its Head for Republicans” as “GOP Primaries Threaten … Hopes of Winning Back Senate”

This morning, new reporting from The Hill highlights that Senate Republicans are bracing for “bruising primaries” and Punchbowl News details how “the issue of candidate quality is rearing its head for Republicans once again,” as their potential candidates bring “significant vulnerabilities” to their races. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are running on “long record[s] of delivering results” and have “already won … tough statewide races.”

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The Hill: GOP primaries threaten Republican hopes of winning back Senate
By Alexander Bolton
June 30, 2023

Key points:

• Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) is leading in the early polls in Montana, despite losing to Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in 2018.

• In West Virginia, Jim Justice […] could face a tough primary challenge from Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), who is backed by the Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group with deep pockets. 

• In Arizona, [Kari] Lake is popular with the GOP base, but her repeated denial of the 2020 election results poses a major liability for her chances of winning a general election.  

• “Senate Republicans are recruiting candidates with disqualifying vulnerabilities, face ongoing pressures from their MAGA base, and are already engaged in vicious primaries. These problems show no sign of going away and will lead their ultimate nominees to defeat in 2024,” said Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.  

• The GOP establishment in Washington, however, suffered a setback when former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced last week that he will become the CEO of Citizens for Free Enterprise, closing off the possibility of being persuaded to run.

• Mooney and Rosendale, the conservatives running against establishment-backed candidates in West Virginia and Montana, may have significant support from outside groups, which could result in bruising primaries next year. 

• The Club for Growth, a conservative, free-market political advocacy group, says it will spend as much as $10 million to help Mooney in West Virginia. The group endorsed Rosendale for Senate in 2018, when he lost a hard-fought battle to Tester by 3.5 percentage points, and backed him again when he ran for the House in 2020.

Punchbowl News: Punchbowl News AM: The Top 
By Max Cohen and Mica Soellner
June 30, 2023

Key points:

• Senate Republicans blew their shot to flip the chamber last cycle because of poor candidate quality. The issue of selecting the best candidates to win in competitive states isn’t going away any time soon. And neither is former President Donald Trump, who played a big role in pushing those sub-par candidates.

• In … Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — which Trump won in 2016 but lost four years later — the issue of candidate quality is rearing its head for Republicans once again.

• It’s obvious that Republicans were dismayed when a highly thought-of potential recruit — Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) — passed on a Senate run this spring. A poll recently showed controversial former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, a Trump ally, leading a GOP primary. 

• Keep in mind that Baldwin remains pretty popular in the state. Having been elected to the Senate in 2012, the Wisconsin Democrat has already won two tough statewide races. And without a strong recruit, Republicans will likely face an uphill battle against her.
  
  
• The Wolverine State may be among Senate Republicans’ biggest question marks this cycle. 

• In Pennsylvania, … Democrats see a candidate with significant vulnerabilities that were exposed during [McCormick’s] primary loss to Trump-backed Mehmet Oz in 2022. The Pennsylvania Democratic Party, for instance, has already begun running ads hitting McCormick on his abortion rights position.

• And although failed gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano passed up a run for Senate this cycle, some Republicans fear his looming presence could pose issues during a contested primary.

See also: ICYMI: GOP Senate hopefuls still want Trump’s stamp of approval [Axios]; More Money, More Problems: “Republicans Want Self-Funders to Run for Senate. Their Record is Far From Stellar.”; ICYMI: GOP Senate Candidates Who Want You to Forget About Their Past Trump Criticism [Daily Beast]; ICYMI: How looming ‘proxy war’ in 2024 Republican primaries could define key races nationwide [ABC News].

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