Democrats Invest in Iowa as Senate Map Expands [The Hill]

Republicans Forced to Defend Another Vulnerable Incumbent & Make Enormous Investments in Iowa

As the battle for the majority of the Senate moves into toss-up territory, Democrats are investing resources to flip Senator Joni Ernst’s seat and forcing Republicans further on defense. A new report from The Hill shows that Ernst’s reelection chances are no longer “as rock solid as they once appeared to be.”

A recent Des Moines Register–Mediacom Iowa poll shows that Ernst’s approval rating has dropped 10 points from where it was a year ago and Morning Consult’s Senator Approval Rankings show that Ernst is the third most unpopular senator in America. Meanwhile, DSCC-endorsed candidate Theresa Greenfield, who leads the Democratic field, “has largely kept pace with Ernst in fundraising and narrowly surpassed her in the second half of 2019.” And last month, the Cook Political report, a nonpartisan election analyst, shifted the race towards the Democrats. 

Mitch McConnell’s super PAC Senate Leadership Fund was forced to book more than $12 million in fall television ads in Iowa, making Iowa the PAC’s second largest investment and indicating that Washington Republicans are nervous about holding on to the vulnerable Ernst’s seat. There are other signs that Iowa’s political terrain is moving in favor of Democrats. In the 2018 midterms, Democrats flipped two congressional seats previously held by Republicans. And in the February caucuses, turnout in suburban counties increased, “fueling Democratic hopes that the suburban energy that helped drive House victories in 2018 could bolster their Senate chances in 2020.”  

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

The Hill: Democrats target Ernst in bid to expand Senate map

By Max Greenwood

April 8, 2020

Key Points:

• Democrats are pouring resources into efforts to flip Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-Iowa) seat and expand their electoral map in November, believing that Iowa has the potential to help decide the fate of the Senate majority.

• Democrats say there are signs that Ernst’s reelection chances aren’t as rock solid as they once appeared to be. A Des Moines Register–Mediacom Iowa poll released last month showed Ernst’s approval rating at 47 percent, down 10 points from where it was a year ago. Her top Democratic rival, Theresa Greenfield, has largely kept pace with Ernst in fundraising and narrowly surpassed her in the second half of 2019.

• The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted the race in Democrats’ direction last month, moving it from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

• In a sign of how important the Iowa Senate seat is to both parties, the two top Republican and Democratic super PACs involved in Senate races booked a combined $25.7 million in fall ad reservations in Iowa late last month, their second-largest fall advertising investment after North Carolina.

• The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), booked $12.6 million in fall television ads in Iowa, a sign that Republicans see the race as competitive.

• The size of the ad reservations — well over $10 million apiece — are notable, given Iowa’s relatively cheap media markets. But political operatives in the state say that the expensive bookings show the seriousness with which both sides view Iowa in the battle for the Senate.

• Democrats say there are signs that Iowa’s political terrain is moving in their favor. In the 2018 midterm elections, for instance, Democratic Reps. Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne flipped two Republican-held House seats in the state. And in the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses in February, turnout in the counties around Des Moines increased, even as participation went down in more rural areas of the state, fueling Democratic hopes that the suburban energy that helped drive House victories in 2018 could bolster their Senate chances in 2020.

Read the full story here.

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