Senate Battle “Gets Closer” As Democrats Push Map Into “Toss-Up Territory,” Republicans Now Defending 10 of 12 Most Competitive Seats

Inside Elections: “Over the Last Year, the Size and Scope of the Battlefield Has Evolved, Almost All in Favor of Democrats”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The Battle for the Senate is Getting More Competitive”

New reports from the nonpartisan election analysts at Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball in the past week confirmed that the Senate majority is increasingly in play, with Republicans now being forced further on defense and the overall map steadily shifting in Democrats’ favor.

According to Inside Elections, “the size and scope of the battlefield has evolved” over the past year — “almost all in favor of Democrats.” The latest analysis moved three race ratings — all in favor of Democrats — as a number of Democratic-held seats “have dropped from the list of most competitive races” while “Republican-held seats in Texas, Kansas, an additional Georgia seat and most recently Montana are now in play.” The movement means “Republicans are now defending 10 of the 12 most competitive Senate seats in the country.”

The latest ratings change update from Sabato’s Crystal Ball also concluded that the battle for control of the Senate “is getting more competitive, with Democrats pushing the overall map more into Toss-up territory.” Both election experts shifted Maine in Democrats’ direction to a “toss-up” rating.

Last month, Cook Political Report wrote that “the chances of Democrats taking back the Senate are rising, and is now close to 50-50 odds” because there are “now several plausible paths” to flipping the seats needed to win the majority in November.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Inside Elections: 2020 Senate Overview (April 3, 2020): Senate is (Still) In Play

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

• Control of the Senate was on the line before the health crisis and continues to be at stake in November.

• Over the last year, the size and scope of the battlefield has evolved, almost all in favor of Democrats. Minnesota and New Hampshire, currently held by Democrats, have dropped from the list of most competitive races, while Republican-held seats in Texas, Kansas, an additional Georgia seat and most recently Montana are now in play. Democrats, however, have had a plausible path since at least October.

• Republicans are now defending 10 of the 12 most competitive Senate seats in the country. That discrepancy is part of the reason why Democrats are within striking distance of the net gain of four seats they need for a majority. Democrats can also control the Senate by gaining three seats and winning the presidential race.

• Even if voters don’t blame Trump for the pandemic or blame his response, a weak economy leaves independent voters without a reason to overlook the president’s tweets and personal style. That will make it more difficult for Trump to recreate his 2016 victory and put pressure on GOP senators who have chosen to align themselves with the president.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Rating Changes: Electoral College and Senate

Democrats edge slightly ahead, but presidential race still a Toss-up; upper chamber battle gets closer…

• The battle for the Senate is getting more competitive, with Democrats pushing the overall map more into Toss-up territory. Two of our rating changes reflect that overall picture this week.

• We came away from 2018 a bit skeptical of McSally as a candidate: She lost to now-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) by about 2.5 points, and McSally was not quite able to translate her impressive background… into an appealing persona as a candidate. She has spent much of her time as a Senate appointee trying to consolidate support on the right, a task she apparently has not yet accomplished given that Trump appears to be doing better in the state than she is. Kelly also has a considerable fundraising advantage on McSally.

• We are also moving Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) from Leans Republican to Toss-up. We’ve resisted this change for a while, but it’s become apparent to us that Collins is in for a very close race… Her likeliest opponent is state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D).

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