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DSCC FRIDAY TAKEAWAYS: HEALTH CARE, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH CARE—EYE-POPPING Q3 FUNDRAISING HAULS FROM DEM CANDIDATES—SLEW OF RATINGS CHANGES TOWARDS DEMS

VULNERABLE INCUMBENTS ATTEMPT TO COVER UP RECORDS ATTACKING PROTECTIONS FOR PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS COVERAGE. In a clear sign that their toxic health care records are dragging down their embattled re-election campaigns, vulnerable Senators Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Martha McSally and Dan Sullivan cast a stunt vote in a desperate attempt to cover up their attacks on the Affordable Care Act and protections for pre-existing conditions coverage. Despite this election year pass from McConnell, these vulnerable incumbents are “trapped on pre-existing conditions” after voting repeatedly to gut coverage protections, which is why they’re trying to “obscure their position.” The reality is protections for people with pre-existing conditions and other health care benefits are “in greater danger than ever” because of Senate Republicans’ rush to fill the Supreme Court vacancy before the election with a nominee who is hostile to the ACA. Read our full statement on their stunt vote here

HEALTH CARE IS FRONT AND CENTER ON THE BALLOT IN NOVEMBER. Oral arguments on the Republican lawsuit to strike down the entire Affordable Care Act and its pre-existing conditions protections are scheduled for just one week after Election Day and Mitch McConnell is still rushing to fill the Supreme Court vacancy with a nominee hostile to the Affordable Care Act. Republican incumbents and candidates support or refuse to oppose this lawsuit, and they are on the record in favor of gutting these core health care protections. Here’s what is at stake if Senate Republicans get their way:

  • As many as 133 million Americans have a pre-existing condition that could disqualify them “from buying a health insurance policy or cause them to pay significantly higher premiums.” 
  • 21 million Americans “are at serious risk of becoming uninsured.”
  • 12 million American adults “who have gained Medicaid coverage through the law’s expansion of the program could lose it.” 
  • 165 million Americans would face coverage limits on expensive treatments for conditions like cancer and hemophilia.
  • 60 million Medicare beneficiaries would have to pay more for preventive care and prescription drugs.

ACA SUPPORT HITS “RECORD HIGH” AMID SCOTUS THREAT. New Morning Consult polling this week confirms that health care is on the ballot this November. The poll found that “a record-high 62% of voters support the Affordable Care Act” – including 59% of independents – support the health care law, an increase of 9 points in the last six months. From their rush to ram an anti-ACA judge on to the Supreme Court just weeks before Election Day, to their ongoing efforts to gut protections for pre-existing conditions, Senate Republicans will be forced to answer for their deeply unpopular anti-health care agenda. Morning Consult: Obamacare Support Hits Record High as Supreme Court Faces Ideological Shift

GUTTING PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS PROTECTIONS IS “KEY FEATURE” OF GOP HEALTH CARE AGENDA. As Senate Republicans work to systematically dismantle the Affordable Care Act, it’s worth remembering that they have no real replacement and “no plan” to help the millions of Americans who lost health coverage during a pandemic-fueled recession. In fact, a deep dive by Atlantic columnist Ronald Brownstein on Republicans’ health care agenda finds that “reducing protections for patients with greater health needs isn’t a bug in the GOP plans; it’s a key feature.” As Republicans desperately try to paper over their toxic records on health care by introducing sham bills, Brownstein found that “none of these initiatives will protect patients with pre-existing health needs nearly as effectively as the ACA does.” The attempts to mislead voters fall far short of protecting people with pre-existing conditions “because the GOP plans still allow insurers to treat them differently from healthy patients, sometimes overtly and sometimes more subtly.” The Atlantic: Why Trump Has No Real Health-Care Plan

REPORT: REPUBLICANS MISLEAD ON HEALTH CARE USING SHADY SPECIAL INTEREST-FUNDED STUDY. This week a Center for Responsive Politics report exposed how a network of McConnell-linked Republican groups are using a speculative report funded by Washington’s “most influential lobbying groups” for the pharmaceutical and insurance companies to misleadingly attack Democratic Senate challengers as Republican incumbents struggle to defend their own health care voting records. The “industry-backed study” has been featured in recent ads in competitive Senate races across the country, including Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina, Montana, and Alaska. Center for Responsive Politics: GOP groups, healthcare industry attack Democrats’ public option

JOBLESS CLAIMS REMAIN ALARMINGLY HIGH, BUT SENATE REPUBLICANS MORE FOCUSED ON SCOTUS THAN PANDEMIC RELIEF. After letting emergency unemployment aid expire two months ago at the end of July, Senate Republicans have still refused to extend that critical relief while taking a month-long summer vacation and then pushing a stunt bill that even Trump said didn’t meet Americans’ needs. Now it’s October and with just over a month to go before Election Day, vulnerable Senate Republicans are suddenly “beginning to fret” about going back to their constituents without having passed a new relief package after obstructing and delaying additional aid all summer. With alarming new reports detailing how millions of Americans have been thrust into a “sudden peril” as they’re left to deal with the worst economic crisis in more than a generation, Mitch McConnell and his caucus have been focused on rushing to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court instead of paying attention to the urgent needs of millions of hardworking families.

DEM SENATE CANDIDATES ANNOUNCE EYE-POPPING Q3 FUNDRAISING HAULS. Democratic Senate challengers and incumbents continue to break new records with their eye-popping Q3 numbers fueled by small-dollar donors. It couldn’t be clearer that grassroots supporters are fired up to flip the Senate and elect Democrats across the map: 

  • #GASEN: Reverend Raphael Warnock will report raising at least $12.8 million in the third quarter. The monster fundraising numbers are more than four times what Warnock raised in the last quarter and come amid a slew of polls showing him surging ahead in the U.S. Senate special election. 
  • #MISEN: Senator Gary Peters announced raising more than $14 million in Q3, “easily a record for a Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan.” The impressive haul was made up of over $8 million in small-dollar online donations.
  • #NCSEN: Cal Cunningham announced a whopping $28.3 million Q3 fundraising haul, the most ever raised in a single quarter by any North Carolina candidate. In this quarter alone, Cunningham received donations from over 40,000 North Carolinians and 96% of donations were under $100.
  • #TXSEN: Decorated Air Force veteran MJ Hegar announced an eye-popping Q3 haul of more than $13.5 million raised in the last three months. This is nearly eight times more than what Hegar raised in Q2 and four times more than what Senator John Cornyn raised in his best fundraising quarter to date. 

RATINGS CHANGES: ANALYSTS MOVE #AKSEN, #COSEN, #MESEN, #NCSEN, #SCSEN IN DEMS’ DIRECTION. Nonpartisan election analysts Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections moved five more Senate race ratings in Democrats’ direction this week. These latest shifts reflect the growing momentum behind Democrats in the battle for control of the Senate:

  • #AKSEN – Crystal Ball: “Alaska is a state that, politically, seems to march to the beat of its own drum — but it’s also a state that Senate Republicans seem to be worried about. First-term Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) is locked in an increasingly competitive race with Al Gross… In September, the Senate Leadership Fund… invested $1.6 million in the Last Frontier.” Likely Republican → Leans Republican
  • #COSEN – Crystal Ball: “Even before the court vacancy, Gardner’s opposition to the ACA seemed to be hurting his electoral standing. So the coverage of the court hearings may emphasize two issues where Republicans are out of step with the Colorado electorate… Gardner is clearly the most vulnerable Republican senator.” Leans Democratic → Likely Democratic
  • #MESEN – Inside Elections: “Most of the private data isn’t particularly encouraging for Republicans as well… The senator is mired in the low 40s and the ranked choice process isn’t likely to be friendly to the long-time incumbent.” Toss-Up → Tilt Democratic
  • #NCSEN – Inside Elections: “Tillis has been stuck in the high-30s to low to mid-40s in most ballot tests for months. That’s not a sign of strength for an incumbent.” Toss-Up → Tilt Democratic
  • #SCSEN – Inside Elections: “If nothing else, Harrison will have an overwhelming spending advantage in the final month of the race… Money alone won’t win this race, but this race just keeps getting more and more competitive.” Lean Republican → Tilt Republican

POLLING ROUNDUP: REPUBLICANS FORCED TO PLAY DEFENSE IN GROWING NUMBER OF STATES. A wave of new polling this week confirmed what we’ve been saying all along: strong challengers have forced Republicans on the defense in states they never anticipated being competitive at the beginning of the cycle. Take a look: 

  • #AKSEN: A new poll from Harstad Strategic Research found that the Alaska Senate race is a dead heat with challenger Dr. Al Gross running just one point behind vulnerable incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan.
  • #GASEN: A new Quinnipiac poll of both Georgia Senate races shows Jon Ossoff narrowly leading Senator David Perdue in the Georgia Senate race and Reverend Raphael Warnock leading the crowded field for Georgia’s Senate special election by a growing margin.
  • #KSSEN: A new internal poll from Dr. Barbara Bollier’s campaign found her leading Congressman Roger Marshall, 45%-43%. The polling also showed that “Bollier has ‘more cross-party and moderate support’ than Marshall.”
  • #SCSEN: A new Quinnipiac poll confirmed South Carolina is a dead heat as Jaime Harrison is running dead even with Senator Lindsey Graham. Harrison boasts a +13 favorability rating, while Graham is underwater by eight points.

MCCONNELL SUPER PAC DUMPS MILLIONS INTO #SCSEN AND #KSSEN. With barely one month to go until Election Day, Mitch McConnell’s super PAC Senate Leadership Fund announced this week it’s launching a $10 million ad buy over three weeks in South Carolina to prop up increasingly vulnerable Senator Lindsey Graham. Senator Graham has become an almost constant fixture on Fox News “begging for money” with pleas for help that expose how alarmed the entrenched incumbent has become at his “closer-than-expected” race. SLF is also pouring another $7.2 million into bailing out Washington politician Roger Marshall in the increasingly competitive Kansas Senate race. National Republican groups aligned with McConnell have dropped over $16 million into this race since the primary, a reminder that the GOP trainwreck in Kansas is far from over.

ICYMI: DETROIT FREE PRESS ENDORSES SENATOR GARY PETERS FOR RE-ELECTION. The Detroit Free Press  “enthusiastically” endorsed Senator Gary Peters for re-election, writing that “Peters has achieved more in his first term than many senators accomplish in their careers.” And while Peters has distinguished himself by providing “courageous bipartisan leadership in times of national upheaval,” the Free Press Editorial Board skewered Republican candidate and failed politician John James  for “cynically deceiving voters” with his “persistent refusal to reveal how he’d address the issues” and being “even more elusive in his campaign against Peters.” Detroit Free Press Editorial Board: Endorsement: Michigan needs Gary Peters. So does Washington.

WHILE MARSHALL PUSHES REPEAL, CAMPAIGN STAFF RELIES ON ACA FOR HEALTH COVERAGE. In a bombshell report this week, the Kansas City Star revealed that “Roger Marshall’s Senate campaign team have health insurance because of the law their boss and other Republicans have repeatedly sought to repeal.” Since Marshall’s campaign doesn’t offer health benefits, many members of his staff have remained on their parents’ health care plans, an option afforded to them because of key provisions in the Affordable Care Act. Marshall himself has repeatedly voted to repeal the measure and just this year opposed a House resolution that urged the Trump administration to drop the GOP-led lawsuit that would dismantle the popular health care law. Kansas City Star: Marshall campaign doesn’t offer health benefits to staff

COLLINS DONOR INVOKED CONNECTIONS TO DC LAWMAKERS TO ILLEGALLY OBTAIN BAILOUT LOANS. New reporting from the Daily Beast reveals how a major campaign donor to Senator Susan Collins “invoked his connections to powerful lawmakers in Washington, D.C.” to pressure banks to approve “millions of dollars in fraudulently obtained coronavirus bailout loans.” Collins’ max-out donor Martin Kao was in the news earlier this year after a complaint was filed connecting him to a shady donation to a super PAC backing Collins’ re-election after she helped secure millions of dollars in funding from which Kao’s company received a contract. The Daily Beast: Alleged COVID Scammer Threatened Banks With His D.C. Connections

IN THE STATES

AK – Alaska Public Media: Al Gross is running for office for the first time. Here’s why he thinks he belongs in the U.S. Senate

CO – Coloradoan: Opinion: Hickenlooper would put country before party

GA – Albany Herald: Warnock receives endorsements of Obama, Eric Holder 

IA – Sioux City Journal: Greenfield proposes new round of pandemic aid

KS – The Lily: Kansas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 88 years. Barbara Bollier could turn the tide.

LA – AP: Edwards supports Adrian Perkins in Louisiana US Senate race

ME – Bangor Daily News (Opinion): Sara Gideon can be the new leader Maine needs

MI – Detroit News: Did John James create 100 jobs? Here’s what we found

MI – Bridge Michigan: “FEC complaint against James”

MS – WXXV: Senate Candidate Mike Espy holds meet and greet in Gulfport

MS – Mississippi Free Press: ‘To Represent All Mississippians’: Hyde-Smith Ad Uses Russian, Canadian Footage

NC – WRAL: In NC, Consequences Of Postal Service Slowdown Extend Beyond The Mailbox

NH – Union Leader: More than 100 Republicans back Shaheen

NM – Vox: Ben Ray Luján is hoping to become one of the most influential Latino senators

SC – Essence: Newly Released Senate Race Poll Shows Harrison Ahead Of Graham

TX – KVUE: MJ Hegar says tattoos cover shrapnel wounds after Republican PAC attack ad

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Lauren Passalacqua
@laurenvpass

Stewart Boss
@stew_boss

Helen Kalla
@helen_kalla

Shea Necheles
@sheanecheles

Regina Anderson
@reginasopinion

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