TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Scott Fairchild, DSCC Executive Director
DATE: April 20, 2020
MEMO: Democrats Expand Path to Senate Majority
When the cycle started, it was on Democrats to recruit impressive candidates, raise the necessary resources, and put forward a compelling message to put control of the Senate in play. Now, nonpartisan analysts agree that Democrats have built strong operations in core battlegrounds, brought more states online, and expanded the overall map to widen the path to the majority. Here’s where things stand less than 200 days out from Election Day:
DEMOCRATS GROW OFFENSIVE MAP WHERE GOP IS ALREADY SPREAD THIN
Republicans were already spread thin, defending 23 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot in November. Unlike Democrats in the 2018 cycle, Republicans failed to take a single state off the map, and instead added to their growing list of defensive liabilities.
FUNDRAISING: MOMENTUM WITH DEMOCRATS, OUTRAISED REPUBLICANS IN 10 GOP-HELD SEATS
It’s worth repeating: Democratic Senate challengers outraised vulnerable Republican incumbents and candidates in 10 GOP-held seats in Q1: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia-Special Election, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina and South Carolina.
“It shows that there is an enthusiasm on Democrats’ side. The Republicans are not seeing the same enthusiasm when the Senate is very much in play.” — Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report
Combined, Democratic candidates in the 10 Senate races rated by the Cook Political Report as either toss-ups or competitive outraised Republicans by more than $8 million in Q1. In the four Republican-held seats rated toss-ups, Democrats outpaced GOP incumbents by “nearly 2-to-1 margins or more.”
Read here for a state-by-state breakdown with highlights and key stats – like Mark Kelly’s $9.5 million cash-on-hand advantage, or Jaime Harrison’s $1.7 million-edge in Q1 over Senator Lindsey Graham.
POLLING: GOP INCUMBENTS WEAK & LOSING ON HEALTH CARE, STILL A TOP ISSUE
The polling trends for this cycle’s weakest GOP senators have been ominous and getting worse over the past year. Morning Consult’s quarterly tracking polling shows alarming trends for Republicans: the net approval for Senators Susan Collins, Cory Gardner, Joni Ernst, Martha McSally, Thom Tillis, and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are all underwater. Nearly all of them also rank among the top 10 most unpopular Senators in the entire country. Tillis has the lowest approval of any Senator in the country. Meanwhile, Senators Doug Jones and Gary Peters both have positive net approval ratings.
A few state highlights:
The contrast on health care helped fuel 2018 midterm wins, and it is becoming an even more critical concern for voters in 2020. It’s also an issue where Senate Republicans remain firmly on the wrong side of public opinion:
GOP FUMBLED ON LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES, DEM INCUMBENTS IN STRONG SHAPE
Senate Republicans whiffed on recruiting and repeatedly failed to expand the map in their direction in Democratic-held states like New Hampshire and Minnesota. Republicans also created self-inflicted wounds in GOP-controlled seats like Georgia and Kansas, where failed recruiting and messy infighting have created more opportunities for Democrats.
Democratic incumbents are in strong shape. Senator Jones has $8.3 million on hand and has outraised the entire GOP field combined, while Republicans continue draining resources to tear each other down in a nasty extended runoff. Senator Peters won his seat by double digits in 2014, has over $8.7 million on hand, and has already been on TV this year touting his effective, bipartisan work supporting veterans and skilled trades. Peters has led GOP challenger and failed 2018 Senate candidate John James in every credible poll, including with independent voters.
BOTTOM LINE: SENATE CONTROL INCREASINGLY IN PLAY
Top-notch recruits, strong campaigns and weak Republican incumbents have put the Senate increasingly in play, which is what independent analysts confirm :
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