NEW Report: “The Majority Is Up For Grabs” with Republicans “Facing Prospective Senate Losses”

GOP Primary Headaches Developing in Georgia, Kansas, Alabama While Democratic Challengers Gain Momentum in Key States Like North Carolina

A new report from the New York Times on the fight for control of the Senate confirms that the majority is in play this cycle — with Democratic challengers gaining steam and Republican incumbents facing “prospective losses” in November. Nonpartisan political handicapper and Inside Elections editor Nathan Gonzales said “the Senate majority is in play” in 2020. This follows the Cook Political Report’s recent analysis that “Democrats appear to have expanded the playing field enough to put Republicans’ majority at risk.”

While Democrats are mounting increasingly strong challenges with impressive fundraising in key battleground states, Republicans are contending with major problems across the map including the “nasty intraparty fight in Georgia” and problematic primary headaches brewing in Kansas and Alabama. And despite millions spent by Mitch McConnell’s Super PAC trying to impersonate a Democratic group and meddle in the North Carolina primary, Army veteran Cal Cunningham is poised to enter the general election this week with major momentum against “strikingly unpopular” Senator Thom Tillis.

Read more about the Senate battle that’s taking shape:

New York Times: Battle for Control of Senate Takes Shape as Both Parties Seek Firewall

Democrats increasingly regard winning the Senate as their last remaining check on President Trump, should he win re-election, while Republicans fight to maintain power in Congress.

By Carl Hulse

March 1, 2020

Key Points:

• The 2020 battle for control of the Senate gets underway in earnest Tuesday, with both parties increasingly seeing the chamber as a must-win prize to guard against uncertainty over who will wind up in the White House.

• Republicans, seeing little chance of reclaiming the House and facing prospective Senate losses, are working to hold their majority to maintain their alliance with President Trump should he win re-election or serve as a firewall against a Democrat in the Oval Office.

• Democrats, who detect some opportunities against Republican incumbents struggling with home-state voters, regard control of the Senate as their only hope of reining in Mr. Trump if he wins, and a crucial perch to support a new presidential ally should Mr. Trump fall short.

• “I always thought that as we got closer to the election, more and more people would focus on the Senate, and that is what is happening,” Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, said in an interview.

• Both sides acknowledge the majority is up for grabs in a chamber paralyzed by dysfunction and intense partisanship, whose reputation for independence and reasoned debate has been tarnished. A photo finish is not out of the question.

• “The Senate majority is in play,” said Nathan L. Gonzales, a nonpartisan handicapper and editor of Inside Elections. “The races are close enough that a 50-50 Senate is a real possibility.”

• The first test for Democrats and how well they have gauged the field will be on Tuesday, when all eyes are on the presidential race but voters will make pivotal decisions that will shape the race for control of Congress. In North Carolina… Democrats hope to defeat Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican who polls show is strikingly unpopular…

• In another Tuesday primary, Senate Democrats have endorsed M.J. Hegar, a former Air Force helicopter pilot who is running in a crowded field in Texas to take on the Republican senator John Cornyn.

• At the moment, Republicans consider their biggest problem to be a nasty intraparty fight in Georgia, where Ms. Loeffler is being challenged by Representative Doug Collins, the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee who was a steadfast defender of Mr. Trump during the impeachment inquiry. Despite intense pressure from Senate Republican leadership — and a hint from Mr. Trump that he could be named national intelligence director — Mr. Collins has refused to bow out, and the two Republicans are in an escalating feud.

• Republicans also have concerns in Kansas, where Mr. McConnell tried unsuccessfully to entice Secretary of State Mike Pompeo into running. Now another well-known but polarizing candidate, Kris Kobach, who lost a run for governor in 2018 to a Democrat, is leading in the polls. Republicans are concerned Mr. Kobach could cost them a seat in what should be a reliably Republican state. Democrats see as formidable their preferred candidate, Barbara Bollier, a state senator who left the Republican Party to become a Democrat in 2018.

• Democrats and their allies are already pouring tens of millions of dollars into defeating the Republican incumbents Cory Gardner in Colorado, Susan Collins in Maine, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Mr. Tillis and Ms. McSally while taking a run at seats in Georgia, Kansas and perhaps Texas.

• Republicans note that even if they lost a few incumbents, they could retain a narrow majority. Democrats believe they can seize the majority irrespective of who wins the presidency.

Read the full story here.

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