NEW REPORTS: Senate Republicans “Increasingly Vulnerable” And Facing “Major Head Winds In Final Stretch”

With Less Than One Month To Go, “There Are Fresh Signs That Even The GOP’s Firewall Is Cracking”

With four weeks until Election Day, new reports on the state of the Senate map are reaching a clear consensus: Senate Republicans are in trouble. With a toxic president, a nonexistent Supreme Court bump, and Democratic challengers raising massive sums from grassroots supporters, Mitch McConnell’s majority is looking “increasingly vulnerable” and facing “major head winds” in the final stretch of the election cycle.

• The Washington Post reports that “the GOP’s predicted Supreme Court bump has yet to materialize” and the announcement “appears to have served as a superspreader event” instead. New “eye-popping fundraising totals” from Democratic challengers and recent polling and outside spending moves in states like Georgia, South Carolina, and Kansas confirm that “the GOP’s firewall is cracking.”

• NBC News reports that “the potential for pickups is growing” as the shifts in Senate battlegrounds since the beginning of the year have been “remarkably one-sided” in favor of Democrats – including in “places we don’t usually expect.”

• Axios reports that Democrats are “trouncing” Republicans on the airwaves in nearly every top competitive Senate race as outside GOP Super PACs desperately attempt to “even it up” and level the playing field.

“Senate Republicans enter the final weeks of this election pouring millions of dollars into states they never expected would be competitive, and are still struggling to explain their indefensible records of voting to eliminate protections for pre-existing conditions and their failed coronavirus response,” said DSCC spokesperson Stewart Boss. ”Four weeks from now, Americans across the country are going to vote for change and elect a Democratic majority in the Senate.”

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Washington Post: Republicans face major head winds in final stretch to maintain Senate majority

• Republicans are facing major head winds in their bid to maintain control of the Senate, a troubling outlook for the party roiled by news of President Trump and three GOP senators contracting the coronavirus four weeks before the election.

• In a tumultuous year marked by a pandemic that has killed nearly 210,000 Americans and civil unrest, Republicans saw the fight over a Supreme Court vacancy as a chance to boost their political fortunes… But the GOP’s predicted Supreme Court bump has yet to materialize.

• Rather than serving as a major boost to their campaigns, Trump’s Supreme Court announcement at the White House on Sept. 26 appears to have served as a superspreader event, with a couple dozen infections connected to that day. That is certain to bring Trump’s response to the pandemic to the forefront of voter’s minds in the lead-up to Nov. 3 — the last thing Republicans wanted.

• “We have close, hard-fought races all over the country,” McConnell said, adding that “the Democrats are competing with us in Kansas and Georgia and even South Carolina.”

• That concern grew deeper as Democratic challengers began unveiling eye-popping fundraising totals, revealing that anti-Trump liberal energy has only grown stronger as sides gird for a Supreme Court fight.

• In North Carolina, Cal Cunningham (D), running in what many consider the tipping-point race, raised more than $28 million, a three-month haul that represents more than double the amount that Tillis, the GOP incumbent, raised in the previous 5½ years.

• Overall, Democratic candidates MJ Hegar in Texas and Raphael Warnock in Georgia reported raising $13.5 million and $12.5 million, providing enough funds to turn races where Republicans had distinct advantages into more competitive battles in the final weeks. And GOP strategists were bracing for a potentially record-setting haul from Jaime Harrison, the South Carolina Democrat who has forced Republicans to divert about $10 million to defend Sen. Lindsey O. Graham in a state Trump won by more than 14 percentage points four years ago.

• “We have grassroots momentum behind us, we hold an advantage on the issues that matter most to voters, and we continue to have a strong path to winning back the majority,” Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement to The Washington Post. “The Republicans’ mismanaged response to this pandemic and the rush to confirm a Supreme Court justice . . . has underscored just how important it is to flip the Senate.”

• Yet there are fresh signs that even the GOP’s firewall is cracking. In Georgia, a recent Quinnipiac University poll shows Warnock ahead, with the special election turning into a nail-biter amid Republican infighting. Rep. Douglas A. Collins (R-Ga.) has waged a vicious campaign against Loeffler, siphoning off GOP support she needs to defeat the little-known Black Baptist pastor from Atlanta.

• Perdue’s race is too close for GOP comfort, with Democrat Jon Ossoff competitive with the Republican incumbent…

• In South Carolina, Graham is tied with Harrison, according to a Post analysis of three polls taken there last month. In the traditionally conservative state, Graham, the three-term senator who won his last race by 17 percentage points, is getting so desperate for cash that he has taken to begging Fox News viewers to donate to his race on live national television.

• The shape of the races is evident based on where outside conservative groups, aligned with McConnell, are spending their resources to defend the Republican majority. In the final five weeks of the campaign, those groups have devoted $110 million to nine states where Republicans hold the seat, according to estimates from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

• But in debates Saturday night, Graham and Ernst found themselves on the defensive over the coronavirus, the government response and some of their past comments.

• Even before Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, Republicans acknowledged that his combative debate performance last week did not help them. His refusal to condemn white supremacy dumbfounded many GOP lawmakers…

NBC News: New Senate map shows Republicans are increasingly vulnerable
There are now seven Republican seats up for grabs, while only Sen. Doug Jones is that vulnerable on the Democratic side.

• Amid the constant political chaos of 2020, there have been a few consistencies. One of them has been a growing Democratic advantage in this fall’s congressional races, particularly the Senate.

• For Democrats, the potential for pickups is growing and affecting some places where a tight general election race is not a normal occurrence. From the Mountain West to the South, the list of competitive Senate races for the GOP looks different this year.

• Going into this election cycle Republicans knew they were going to be defending a challenging map. There are 23 Republican seats on the ballot this fall and only 12 for the Democrats. But aside from those differences, the changes in battlegrounds since the beginning of the year have been remarkably one-sided.

• But the latest Cook ratings now show a different landscape. For the Republicans, seven Senate seats are highly competitive, rated “Toss Up” or worse, and still only one Democratic seat falls into that category.

• For the Republicans, however, the changes are more dramatic. The Colorado and Arizona seats have moved from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic.” And there are now five GOP “Toss Up” seats including those in Iowa, Georgia, Montana and North Carolina — all states won by Trump in 2016 — along with Maine.

• In addition, there are three “Lean Republican” seats, including the other Georgia seat, Kansas and South Carolina… a few of those new Republican “Lean” states stand out for being battlegrounds. Consider South Carolina and Kansas.

• In some ways, Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat in South Carolina tells the most dramatic story for 2020. It has moved a long way since January in the Cook ratings. Back then the seat was listed as “Solid Republican,” in part because Graham seemed to be working hard to win over Trump voters.

• But the numbers show much less support for Graham recently. A late-September poll from Quinnipiac University found the race dead even and every poll since September has it in single-digits. Furthermore, Graham’s opponent, Jaime Harrison, is flooding the airwaves with campaign ads, and is set to outspend Graham 7 to 1 in the last month of the election.

• One survey from a Republican firm found the Republican, Roger Marshall, leading by about 4 points. A survey from a Democratic firm found the Democrat, Barbara Bollier, leading by 2. Both polls had Marshall at 43 percent, which is not where a Republican wants to be in Kansas, especially not a month out from Election Day.

• …the Senate ratings shift serve as a reminder that there is more at stake in November than just the White House. And the last few months have shown a decided Democratic tilt on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, some of it coming from places we don’t usually expect.

Axios: The blue money wave in Senate races

• Democrats are trouncing Republicans on the airwaves in the battle for the Senate, outspending them in nine of the top 10 competitive Senate races.

• Even before President Trump’s COVID diagnosis, Republicans were growing increasingly concerned that Democrats’ money advantage could flip control of the Senate.

• While some outside super PAC money for the GOP is starting to even it up, Republican candidates have been outspent for the year, according to data provided to Axios by Advertising Analytics.

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