POLITICO’s Election Forecast: Senate GOP “in Serious Danger” of Losing Majority

Two Key Republican-Held Senate Seats in Iowa and Montana Move to Toss-up

“Democrats Have Both Built Leads in States That Were Previously Considered Up-For-Grabs and Put New States Firmly on the Map, Expanding Their Path to a Majority”

POLITICO’s latest election forecast finds Republicans’ Senate majority “in serious danger of being swept out” in 2020. According to POLITICO’s new analysis of the Senate map, “Democrats have both built leads in states that were previously considered up-for-grabs” as well as put new states firmly on the map, “expanding their path to a majority” and moving the overall race for Senate control “close to a coin flip.”

POLITICO also made two major ratings changes in key Senate races, moving Iowa and Montana to toss-up:

• In Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst “is no longer a significant favorite” to win after the Des Moines Register poll last month showed her narrowly trailing Theresa Greenfield.

• In Montana, Governor Steve Bullock “has earned high marks for his handling of the pandemic” and polls “have Bullock leading or tied” with Senator Steve Daines.

Democrats are increasingly well-positioned in other key states: retired astronaut Mark Kelly has “consistently outpolled” unelected Senator Martha McSally in Arizona, and Senator Cory Gardner is in “extreme peril” in Colorado, where John Hickenlooper “begins with a lead.”

POLITICO: POLITICO’s Election Forecast: Trump, Senate GOP in trouble

By Steven Shepard

July 6, 2020

Key Points:

• President Donald Trump is now an underdog to win a second term, and Republicans’ Senate majority is in serious danger of being swept out with him, according to the latest edition of POLITICO’s Election Forecast.

• The national atmosphere is toxic enough that Senate Republicans, who currently hold a three-seat majority, no longer have a significant edge in their quest to retain control of the chamber next year.

• Democrats have both built leads in states that were previously considered up-for-grabs and put new states firmly on the map, expanding their path to a majority and potential unified control of government in 2021.

• Senate Republicans aren’t just playing defense in vulnerable seats in states like Colorado, Maine and North Carolina — they’re also retrenching in places like Iowa and Montana.

• Republicans entered the 2020 Senate election cycle with greater exposure — including special elections, they control 23 of the 35 seats on the ballot this fall — but with some significant advantages… But the race for Senate control is now close to a coin flip.

• Democrats now have discernible leads in Arizona and Colorado. Retired astronaut Mark Kelly has consistently outpolled appointed Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona’s special election.

• After winning last week’s Democratic primary in Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper begins with a lead over GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. Gardner is… running in a state where Trump won only 43 percent of the vote in 2016. While the forecast is currently leaving the race in the toss-up column, Gardner is in extreme peril.

• In Iowa, GOP Sen. Joni Ernst is no longer a significant favorite to win a second term. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll last month showed her narrowly trailing Democratic nominee Theresa Greenfield, and the race is now a toss up.

• Also joining the toss up ranks is Republican-leaning Montana. Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock has earned high marks for his handling of the pandemic, and even polls that show Trump with a solid lead in the state have Bullock leading or tied with GOP Sen. Steve Daines.

• With one toss up race moving slightly into the Democratic column, and two GOP-leaning states nudging to the highly competitive toss up rating, Republicans currently hold or are favored to win 48 seats, only one more than Democrats. The majority is at stake in the five toss up races: Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina.

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