RATINGS CHANGE: Inside Elections Moves Eight Senate Races in Dems’ Favor

Democrats Now Have “More Than One Legitimate Path” to the Majority 

Inside Elections released their updated race ratings today, moving eight Senate races in Democrats’ favor and writing that Democrats have “more than one legitimate path” to the majority this November. According to their analysis, while the Senate “has been in play” for months, Democratic chances have “improved significantly” within the last few weeks and “Democrats are more likely than not to win control of the Senate.” The nonpartisan election analyst cited Democratic challengers “astounding” fundraising hauls and how they’ve expanded the map, turning “previously lower-tier contests” into “neck-and-neck races.” 

This is the second election forecast this week that found Republicans’ Senate majority “in serious danger of being swept out” in 2020. The ratings changes come as reports detail Republicans’ growing anxiety as they “fear November’s election could be devastating” as their Democratic challengers are posting record-breaking fundraising numbers.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Inside Elections: 2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): Democrats Poised to Control the Senate
By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin
July 10, 2020

Key Points: 

• The Senate has been in play for at least nine months, but Democratic chances of winning control of the chamber have improved significantly in the last few weeks. 

• The Senate battleground has improved for Democrats down the ballot. Some states, such as Colorado, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina, have been competitive for the entire cycle. But previously lower-tier contests in Iowa, Montana, and Georgia are now neck-and-neck races. And Kansas, Texas, and even Alaska and South Carolina can’t be considered solid for Republicans anymore. That gives Democrats more than one legitimate path.

• Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, but can control the Senate by gaining three seats and winning the White House. With less than four months to go before Election Day, the most likely outcome is a Democratic net gain of 3-5 Senate seats. Since Biden has a clear advantage in the presidential race, that means Democrats are more likely than not to win control of the Senate.

• Multiple Republican incumbents are either already trailing or hovering in the low 40s against their challengers.

• Right now the preponderance of data points to a great election for Democrats.

Read the full analysis here. 

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