NEW: Job Approval Falls for Vulnerable Senate Republicans in Key Battlegrounds

“Iowa voters soured on Sen. Joni Ernst… the biggest slide in net approval for any senator” 

“Tillis, Gardner, Ernst and Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) all have approval ratings beneath 40%”

New numbers come as Democratic challengers outraise incumbents, build grassroots support 

Morning Consult’s latest polling shows that job approval fell for Senators Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Martha McSally, and Thom Tillis, the latest in a series of bad developments for the GOP as “Republican senators are not improving their standing in their home states ahead of a tough 2020 election cycle, while the field of potential Democratic challengers took shape and began to flex its muscle.”

Gardner, Tillis, Collins, and Ernst are all underwater heading into the toughest campaigns of their political careers, and Gardner, Collins, and Ernst all rank among the top 10 most unpopular Senators in the country. The new numbers are particularly devastating for Ernst, who “saw a drop of 9 percentage points — the biggest decline in net approval for any senator.” 

These numbers come after a particularly strong fundraising quarter for Democrats, who outraised Republican incumbents in Arizona, Iowa and Maine while Republican incumbents like Ernst and Tillis posted disappointing reports. In recent weeks, three independent analysts have moved the Iowa, Maine and North Carolina Senate races in Democrats’ direction. 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Morning Consult: Things Aren’t Getting Better for 2020’s Most Vulnerable Senate Republicans

Five vulnerable Republicans see declines in net approval

By Eli Yokley

October 17, 2019

Key Points:

• The most vulnerable Republican senators are not improving their standing in their home states ahead of a tough 2020 election cycle, while the field of potential Democratic challengers took shape and began to flex its muscle.

• Republicans representing Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa all saw their net approval — the share of voters who approve of a senator’s job performance minus the share who disapprove — decline between the second and third quarters of 2019.

• Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst… saw a drop of 9 percentage points — the biggest decline in net approval for any senator. The slide places her underwater with Iowa voters (39 percent approve and 43 percent disapprove) for the first time and among the 10 most unpopular senators in the country.

• Ernst is not the only Republican up for re-election next year with a home-state approval below 40 percent: Among the vulnerable incumbents, Martha McSally of Arizona, Cory Gardner of Colorado and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are all below that threshold following a quarter where each saw little movement.

• The latest figures come as Democrats in Washington have touted the third-quarter fundraising success of the party’s candidates.

• In Iowa, businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, who is backed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List, outraised Ernst. In Arizona, retired astronaut Mark Kelly outraised McSally by some $2.5 million, according to his campaign. In Maine, state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D) outraised Sen. Susan Collins. In Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) raised $2.1 million since launching his bid in August, just short of Gardner’s $2.45 million over three months.

• “You see it not just in the Senate candidates hitting their mark and doing really well in fundraising and building the grassroots, but you also see it in how shaky these incumbents are,” [said Democratic strategist Martha McKenna]

• The latest rankings show Trump continues to be a drag on Republican incumbents. In Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Texas, Trump’s net approval with registered voters is worse than that of the incumbent Republican, by double digits in several cases.

Read the full story here.

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