Senate Democrats Shifted the Map, Defined the Issues and Have the Enthusiasm

2 Weeks Until Election Day

TO: Interested Parties

FR: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

RE: Senate Democrats Shifted the Map, Defined the Issues and Have the Enthusiasm

1) Democrats have shifted a historically challenging Senate map: cutting GOP targets in half and expanding offensive opportunities. Now Democratic registration and early voting are surging.

• From The Washington Post: “Republicans running for governor or senator in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, including several who hitched their wagon to Trump’s political movement, are behind in polls by double digits […] If current polling averages hold, Democrats will maintain all their Senate seats in those states.”
• NV: Jon Ralston wrote Democrats early voting surge is a “bad omen for the Republicans” and the Washington Post reported “Democrats ended the registration period with a 74,923-voter advantage over Republicans […] right in Heller’s self-identified danger zone.”
• AZ: Democrats cut the GOP’s voter registration advantage to the lowest point in nearly a decade.
• TN: The most recent polling shows a small lead for Governor Bredesen and that he is “more popular among Republicans than Blackburn is among Democrats.”
• TX: “A huge surge in Democratic participation” is smashing early voting records.

2) The issue terrain is in Democrats’ favor – especially health care.

• Polling conducted after the Supreme Court vote from CBS, Washington Post-ABC and FOX News show health care remains voters’ top issue and they trust Democrats on it more.
• Politico reported how Senator McConnell’s recent comments targeting Medicare and Social Security have given Democrats ‘campaign gold.’
• See more examples of how the McConnell effect is reverberating across Senate races here.

3) Democrats have the enthusiasm, out-performing expectations all cycle.

• In 2017 and 2018 one trend line is clear: in every election Democrats have out-performed expectations, including in heavily conservative areas.
• In FL’s 72^nd House District Democrats won by 7.4 points even though Republicans hold a 10 point registration advantage; in Missouri Democrats flipped a State Senate seat in which the district swung 24 points; and Democrats won the Alabama Senate race despite widespread media predictions that African-American voters would not participate.

The bottom line: Senate Democrats have shifted a historically challenging map in our favor, the issue terrain is hostile as ever for Republicans and our campaigns enjoy an enthusiasm advantage that has boosted Democratic candidates all cycle. Heading into the final two weeks, our candidates are well-positioned and executing the strategies developed to win these competitive races.