Democrats Move Within Striking Range of Taking the Senate [NBC News]

Top Elections Forecaster: “I Would Rather Be The Democrats Than Republicans Right Now”

A new NBC News report this weekend details how Democrats have expanded the Senate map and created battleground opportunities across the country with impressive challengers, record-breaking grassroots fundraising, and a clear focus on defending health care protections and lowering costs for hardworking families. 

Nonpartisan election analysts have already overwhelmingly shifted race ratings in Democrats’ direction since the start of the cycle and moved the overall Senate battle to an increasingly competitive toss-up. Now, these nonpartisan election analysts are saying “I would rather be the Democrats than Republicans right now.” 

As Democrats have expanded the map, Republicans have been forced on defense “even in some very red states.” GOP operatives have grown more and more concerned about Democrats’ rising chances in the fight to flip the Senate and an increasingly common series of reports spotlights just how nervous Republicans are — with one senior GOP strategist recently describing the situation as “a bleak picture.”

The report comes as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced the launch of FlipTheSenate.com — a new online hub for voters to learn more about Democratic Senate challengers and incumbents, sign up to volunteer with campaigns, and donate directly to candidates.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

NBC News: Democrats move within striking range of taking the Senate, forecasts say

By Sahil Kapur

Key Points:

• Election Day is still five months away, but recent polls, fundraising deficits and other problems for Republican incumbents have diminished their prospects and opened up several possible avenues for Democrats to take control of the chamber.

• “I would rather be the Democrats than Republicans right now,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate editor of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster. “Democrats have expanded the map and put Republicans on defense even in some very red states.”

• Trump’s struggles in historically Republican states, like Arizona and Georgia, are creating collateral damage for his party’s Senate candidates. Public skepticism of Trump’s handling of the pandemic, and Biden’s expanding lead since the nationwide backlash to George Floyd’s death, has put many GOP Senate candidates in a difficult position. 

• “For the moment, all of the things that need to happen for Democrats to take control of the Senate are happening,” said Guy Cecil, chairman of the Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, which plans to spend more than $200 million to win the White House and Senate. “I’m optimistic that we can win back the Senate.”

• Some GOP operatives fear that races like Colorado and Arizona — once thought to be close — are slipping away while Maine and North Carolina are becoming too close for comfort.

• [Senator Susan] Collins, meanwhile, did not join Trump during his visit to Maine on Friday, although she denied that the president was hurting her chances of re-election. But she said Democrats’ attacks on her have had an impact as she has been out-raised and out-spent: “It’s the barrage of unfounded falsehoods that have taken a toll,” she said.

• Arizona’s Republican Sen. Martha McSally has consistently trailed former astronaut Mark Kelly, husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, since last August, including by 13 points in a new Fox News survey.

• And in North Carolina, Thom Tillis, the GOP incumbent, and his Democratic opponent, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, were statistically tied in two recent polls.

• A Montana State University poll in April found that state’s Democratic governor, Steve Bullock, leading Republican Sen. Steve Daines by 7 points after Bullock’s late entry breathed life into a red-state race that Democrats had all but written off.

• And in Georgia, appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, sworn in this year, drew criticism for stock trades made on her behalf after early coronavirus briefings, for which she’s been cleared by the Justice Department. Loeffler, who said she was unaware of the transactions at the time, faces a contentious “jungle primary” that includes Republican Rep. Doug Collins.

• But Lauren Passalacqua, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Republicans will pay a price for their efforts to repeal or overturn Affordable Care Act protections, as health care remains a top issue for voters.

• “Democrats are focused on the issues that matter to voters, including affordable health care coverage, and are reporting record-breaking grassroots support, which is how we’ve expanded the map and continue to move these races in our direction,” she said.

• Overall, the Cook Political Report’s Taylor said, “Democratic challengers are by far out-raising the Republicans early on.”

Read the full report here.

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