ICYMI: Democrats See Edge in Early Senate Map as Trump Casts Big Shadow [New York Times]

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New York Times: Democrats See Edge in Early Senate Map as Trump Casts Big Shadow
Early fund-raising has given Democrats cause for optimism in key states as Republicans split over how closely to align with Donald Trump’s preferences.

By Shane Goldmacher
July 17, 2021

Key Points:

• Six months into the Biden administration, Senate Democrats are expressing a cautious optimism that the party can keep control of the chamber in the 2022 midterm elections, enjoying large fund-raising hauls in marquee races as they plot to exploit Republican retirements in key battlegrounds and a divisive series of unsettled G.O.P. primaries.

• Swing-state Democratic incumbents, like Senators Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Mark Kelly of Arizona, restocked their war chests with multimillion-dollar sums ($7.2 million and $6 million, respectively), according to new financial filings this week. That gives them an early financial head start in two key states where Republicans’ disagreements over former President Donald J. Trump’s refusal to accept his loss in 2020 are threatening to distract and fracture the party.

• Four Senate Democratic incumbents are up for re-election in swing states next year — making them prime targets for Republican gains. But in none of those four states — New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia — has a dominant Republican candidate emerged to consolidate support from the party’s divergent wings.

• Out of office and banished from social media, Mr. Trump continues to insist on putting his imprint on the party with rallies and regular missives imposing an agenda of rewarding loyalists and exacting retribution against perceived enemies.

• Critical races remain unsettled for Republicans. The party is still trying to find compelling Senate candidates in several states.

• The unexpected retirements of Republican senators in Pennsylvania and North Carolina have opened seats and opportunities for Democrats in those swing states.

• In Wisconsin, a third Republican incumbent, Senator Ron Johnson, has wavered for months over whether he will seek a third term. Mr. Johnson raised only $1.2 million in the last quarter, just enough to carry on but not quite enough to dispel questions about his intentions. Whether or not Mr. Johnson runs, Wisconsin is among the top Democratic targets in 2022.

• Two other G.O.P. retirements in redder states, Ohio and Missouri, have further destabilized the Republican map, providing at least a modicum of opportunity for Democrats in Trump territory. Republicans face heated primaries in both states.

• Mr. Trump, who is often at cross-purposes with Mr. McConnell, has appeared especially engaged in the Arizona and Georgia races, largely because of his own narrow losses there. He has publicly urged the former football player Herschel Walker to run in Georgia — Mr. Walker has not committed to a campaign — and attacked the Republican governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, even after Mr. Ducey has said he is not running for Senate.

• Mr. Trump delivered one early Senate endorsement in North Carolina, to Representative Ted Budd, who raised $953,000, which is less than the $1.25 million that former Gov. Pat McCrory pulled in.

See also: The Hill: Trump getting tougher for Senate GOP to ignore; POLITICO: ‘Get on the team or shut up’: How Trump created an army of GOP enforcers; National Journal: Republicans suppressing their own voters in Arizona and Georgia; Vice: Trump’s Election Lies Are Taking Over Republican Senate Races; CNN: Republican candidates back Trump’s election lies across the 2021 and 2022 maps; Washington Post: In ramp-up to 2022 midterms, Republican candidates center pitches on Trump’s false election claims; Washington Post: Trump’s endorsements: revenge against enemies, rewards for friends and purveyors of election falsehoods; HuffPost: After Criticizing Trump, GOP Senate Candidates Now Desperate For His Endorsement; Roll Call: Trump could shake up key Senate races with endorsements; National Journal: Trump is sabotaging the GOP’s Senate prospects; Axios: Pro-McConnell PAC prepared to intervene in 2022 primaries; CNN Analysis: Mitch McConnell was asked about Trump and 2022. His answer is hilarious.

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